Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has stated that the spot cryptocurrency market is on the verge of a new growth phase. He bases his optimistic forecast on an analysis of historical bearish phases, each of which lasted approximately 370–380 days. According to him, the current cycle has almost exhausted itself, and the market is ready for a reversal.
The statement came after a meeting at the White House, where Donald Trump invited key players from the crypto industry and regulators. Immediately after that, bitcoin (BTC) strengthened and surpassed the $78,000 mark, confirming a shift in sentiment.
Trading activity: decline and signs of a bottom
My analysis shows that the last few months have been challenging for the market. In July, spot trading volume on the 14 largest exchanges fell by 21.7% — from $547.9 billion to $429.0 billion. Binance maintained its lead with $196.5 billion and a 45.8% share, while Coinbase lost 26.4% of its turnover. Only Bitfinex performed worse, with a decline of 59.7%.
The derivatives market also contracted by 11.1%, to $3.03 trillion. At the same time, the ratio of futures to spot trades rose from 6.21x to 7.06x, indicating increased use of leverage by traders. In early August, the fear and greed index dropped to 29, reflecting the prevailing fear among participants.
Macroeconomic shift: bonds reversed the trend
The key trigger was a sharp change in the macroeconomic picture on August 19. The U.S. Treasury doubled its bond buyback volume — to $4 billion or more per operation, and the number of such operations per quarter will grow from two to four. The new schedule will take effect on September 9.
Government bond yields moved lower: ten-year notes lost 5.7 basis points, falling to 4.647%, while thirty-year bonds dropped 9 points, to 5.196%. In the same days, Donald Trump reported that authorities are discussing a large purchase of bitcoin. Since then, the BTC price has gained about 22% and held near $78,700 on Saturday. The fear and greed index soared to 71, confirming a shift to bullish sentiment.
Armstrong: time and calendar are in their favor
Armstrong ties his forecast to the length of the cycle. He notes that spot trading has remained in a bearish phase for about a year, whereas historically such periods lasted 370–380 days.
«We are almost at the point where people start saying — this cycle is probably ending. So, it's time for the next bull market in crypto,» he emphasized.
The Coinbase CEO highlights two key supporting factors. First, the Senate vote on the CLARITY bill, scheduled for September 15. Second, the period from October to December, which he considers traditionally strong for bitcoin due to halving cycles.
«I think there is a high probability that we are on the verge of a new bull market for spot cryptocurrency trading,» he concluded.
My assessment: Armstrong's forecast looks reasonable, especially against the backdrop of a synchronized improvement in macroeconomic liquidity and regulatory signals. However, one should not forget that historical parallels do not guarantee repetition, and the market may spring surprises. Nevertheless, the combination of technical and fundamental factors does indeed point to a phase shift.