Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is confident that the prolonged bear market phase is coming to an end. According to his calculations, the current downtrend, lasting about a year, has nearly exhausted itself, and the market is now ready for a new bull phase. The key argument is historical cyclicality: past correction periods lasted approximately 370–380 days.
The market is finding its bottom
The statement came amid noticeable revival following a meeting between the crypto industry and Donald Trump at the White House. Bitcoin responded with gains and held above the $78,000 level, marking the first serious signal of a shift in sentiment in several months.
Before that, the market was experiencing deep depression. Spot trading volumes on the 14 largest exchanges plunged 21.7% in July — to $429 billion from $547.9 billion the previous month. Leader Binance held its position with $196.5 billion (45.8% share), while Coinbase lost 26.4%, performing worse than average. Bitfinex fared the worst with a 59.7% collapse.
The derivatives segment also contracted by 11.1% — to $3.03 trillion. At the same time, the ratio of futures to spot trades rose from 6.21x to 7.06x, indicating growing leverage and speculative sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index fell to 29 points on August 13, recording panic.
A macroeconomic trigger reversed the trend
Everything changed on August 19. The U.S. Treasury announced it would double the volume of bond buybacks — to $4 billion per operation, with the number of operations per quarter rising from two to four. The new schedule takes effect on September 9. Treasury yields fell sharply: ten-year notes lost 5.7 basis points (to 4.647%), thirty-year notes dropped 9 points (to 5.196%).
In parallel, Trump confirmed that authorities are discussing a large-scale purchase of bitcoin for reserves. Since then, the leading cryptocurrency has gained about 22%, and the Fear and Greed Index has soared to 71 — territory of clear greed.
Bullish forecast: time and the calendar work in favor of buyers
Armstrong links the reversal to two factors. First, the Senate vote on the CLARITY bill, scheduled for September 15, which could bring long-awaited regulatory clarity. Second, seasonality: October–December is historically a strong period for bitcoin, especially in a halving year, when reduced miner rewards create a supply deficit.
"We are almost at the point where people start saying — this cycle is probably ending. So it's time for the next bull market in crypto," emphasizes the Coinbase chief.
My take: Armstrong relies on a solid foundation — a combination of macroeconomic easing, regulatory progress, and historical patterns. However, it should not be forgotten that past bull cycles were fueled by excess liquidity, and the current recovery will be more selective. Investors should prepare for growth, but with an eye on volatility and possible corrections along the way up.