Recent operational raids at "Novaya Gorbushka" and in "Moscow-City" have dealt a tangible blow to illegal crypto exchangers, but they are unable to eliminate the root cause of this market's existence in Russia. The raids break specific chains but do not solve the systemic problem—such is the conclusion that emerges after analyzing the situation.
What the real power of such raids is
First and foremost, it is a targeted strike at the key link in fraudulent schemes. Phone scammers do not work with bank accounts directly—that is too risky due to oversight by FinCERT and blocks under Federal Law No. 115-FZ. Therefore, their logistics depend on illegal exchangers, which accept cash from couriers, convert it into cryptocurrency, and withdraw it to foreign wallets.
Detentions of employees, seizure of equipment, and freezing of channels temporarily break the entire chain. Victims get a chance to recover part of their funds, and specific criminal groups lose infrastructure and income. Moreover, demonstrating the inevitability of punishment—opening criminal cases under Part 4 of Article 159 of the Criminal Code (up to 10 years of imprisonment)—forces some potential perpetrators to abandon such earnings. Every closed exchanger shrinks the market, increasing costs and risks for fraudsters.
Why the problem is not fully resolved
However, the main reason for the existence of illegal exchangers is the lack of sufficient legal infrastructure for converting cryptocurrency. As long as Russia lacks clear rules and a sufficient number of legal crypto exchangers, the demand for shadow services does not disappear but merely changes form. The infrastructure quickly recovers, but in a more hidden form.
Modern fraudulent schemes do not require physical presence. A significant portion of operations already goes through P2P platforms, online exchangers, droppers, dead drops, and crypto ATMs. Raids on specific addresses do not affect this infrastructure. Moreover, after high-profile searches, fraudsters may move into an even less controlled environment.
As a result, mostly low-level operatives are detained—cashiers, operators, couriers. The organizers of the schemes, as a rule, are located abroad or use a multi-level system of intermediaries where operatives do not know each other. Criminal cases against rank-and-file participants do not stop the criminal business but merely create the appearance of active enforcement.
Corruption risks deserve separate mention. Physical exchangers cannot exist without "protection"—landlords, security, local corrupt officials, or law enforcement. Until these corruption ties are exposed, the closure of some locations will be offset by the opening of others under the patronage of new protectors. High-profile operations with masks and journalists are often timed to reporting dates and create the false impression that the problem is being solved.
Risks for bona fide participants
Bona fide market participants are currently in a zone of legal uncertainty. Even with complete innocence, they may become targets of operational measures, blocks, and criminal prosecution due to unclear criteria, errors, and the absence of protective mechanisms. Searches in shopping centers cause damage to landlords, neighboring stores, and services, scaring away customers and inflicting long-term reputational harm.
Given the geopolitical situation, raids and searches are an understandable measure. This can be effective as a tool for disrupting specific operations, demonstrating state will, and a way to gather intelligence on criminal networks. However, strategically, the problem is not solved without creating legal exchange infrastructure, controlling online channels, and internationally prosecuting organizers. Otherwise, the fraudulent conveyor belt will recover faster than law enforcement can conduct new searches.
My conclusion: As long as Russia does not introduce a clear and accessible legal way to convert cryptocurrency, the shadow market will continue to exist, merely changing form. Raids are a fight against symptoms, not the disease. A real solution requires a comprehensive strategy that includes both regulation and international cooperation.