Raid on "Gorbushka" and in "City": why the shadow crypto industry will not die
The recent raids at "Novaya Gorbushka" and detentions in "Moscow City" are merely a targeted strike against shadow infrastructure, not a solution to a systemic problem. The market for illegal crypto exchangers in Russia will continue to exist until real legal alternatives emerge. This is evidenced by an analysis of the situation conducted with the participation of Alexander Brazhnikov, Director of the Russian Association of Cryptoeconomics, Artificial Intelligence, and Blockchain (RAKIB).
The effect exists, but it is temporary
Let's get straight to the point: the effect of such raids exists, but it is targeted and short-term. They disrupt specific chains of fraudulent schemes, yet the illegal exchange market itself recovers with astonishing speed. Why does this happen? The answer lies in the structure of these criminal networks.
Phone scammers do not work with bank accounts directly—this is too risky due to oversight by the Financial Intelligence (FinCERT) and blocks under Federal Law 115-FZ. The key link in their logistics is illegal crypto exchangers, which accept cash from couriers, convert it into cryptocurrency, and transfer it to foreign wallets. This is precisely where law enforcement strikes.
The detention of employees, seizure of equipment, and freezing of channels temporarily disrupt the entire chain. Victims get a chance to recover part of their money, and specific criminal groups lose infrastructure and income. Additionally, demonstrating the inevitability of punishment—opening criminal cases under Part 4 of Article 159 of the Criminal Code (up to 10 years of imprisonment)—serves as a powerful deterrent for rank-and-file operatives.
Why this does not solve the problem
However, the main reason for the existence of illegal exchangers is the lack of sufficient legal infrastructure for converting cryptocurrency. As long as Russia lacks clear rules and a sufficient number of legal crypto exchangers, the demand for illegal services does not disappear but merely changes form. The infrastructure quickly recovers, albeit in a more hidden manner.
Modern fraudulent schemes do not require physical presence. A significant portion of operations already flows through P2P platforms, online exchangers, droppers, dead drops, and crypto ATMs. Raids on specific addresses do not affect this infrastructure. Moreover, after high-profile searches, scammers may retreat into an even less controlled environment.
As a result of the raids, mostly rank-and-file operatives are detained: cashiers, operators, couriers. The organizers of the schemes are typically abroad or use a multi-level system of intermediaries where operatives do not know each other. Criminal cases against rank-and-file participants do not stop the criminal business; they merely create the appearance of active enforcement.
Corruption risks and damage to legitimate business
Corruption risks deserve separate attention. Physical exchangers cannot exist without "protection"—landlords, security, local corrupt officials, or law enforcement. Until these corrupt ties are exposed, the closure of some locations will be offset by the opening of others under the patronage of new "protectors."
Furthermore, high-profile operations with masks and journalists are often timed to reporting dates or public resonance, creating a false impression in society that the problem is being solved. Their effect is real but short-lived. If no systematic work follows the noisy phase, the market quickly recovers.
Law-abiding market participants in Russia are currently in a zone of legal fog. Even with complete innocence, they may become targets of operational measures, blocks, and criminal prosecution due to unclear criteria, errors, and the absence of protective mechanisms.
Searches in shopping centers cause damage to landlords, neighboring stores, and services. Blocked entrances, the presence of law enforcement, and negative news coverage scare off customers, reduce revenue, and inflict long-term reputational harm. The state, while fighting illegal exchangers, indirectly punishes law-abiding entrepreneurs.
Given the geopolitical situation, raids and searches are an explainable measure. This can be effective as a tool for disrupting specific operations, demonstrating state will, and gathering intelligence about criminal networks. But strategically, the problem is not solved without creating legal exchange infrastructure, controlling online channels, and pursuing organizers internationally.
My conclusion as an analyst: until Russia introduces full-fledged regulation and legal ways to convert cryptocurrency, the fraudulent conveyor belt will recover faster than law enforcement can conduct new raids. Raids are merely fighting symptoms, not the disease.