Raid on "Gorbushka" and in "City": why the shadow infrastructure of crypto exchange is invulnerable
The large-scale raids at the legendary Gorbushka shopping center and the detentions at the Moscow-City business complex are not just targeted strikes against illegal crypto exchange, but part of a deeper game. However, as my analysis shows, such measures, for all their spectacle, are incapable of destroying the ecosystem of shadow exchangers itself. They merely temporarily sever individual logistics chains, but the systemic cause of their existence remains untouched.
What the real power of such raids is
First, this is a blow to the key link in fraud schemes. Phone scammers do not work with bank accounts directly—the risk of blocks under Federal Law 115 and oversight by FinCERT is too high. Therefore, their logistics depend on illegal exchangers, which accept cash from couriers, convert it into cryptocurrency, and withdraw it to foreign wallets. Detaining staff, seizing equipment, and freezing channels temporarily paralyzes this chain. Victims get a chance to recover part of their funds, while criminal groups lose income and infrastructure.
Second, it demonstrates the inevitability of punishment. Initiating criminal cases under Part 4 of Article 159 of the Criminal Code (up to 10 years in prison) is a powerful deterrent for rank-and-file operatives: cashiers, operators, couriers. Real arrests, unlike virtual warnings, force many to abandon such earnings.
Third, it reduces infrastructure. Every closed exchanger shrinks the market, forcing fraudsters to seek new intermediaries, which raises their costs and risks. If raids become systematic rather than one-off, this could lead to a shortage of services and a decline in the profitability of the schemes.
Why this does not solve the problem
The main reason for the resilience of illegal exchangers is the lack of a full-fledged legal alternative. As long as Russia does not have a sufficient number of regulated crypto exchangers with clear rules, demand for shadow services will not disappear. It merely mutates: infrastructure quickly recovers, but in a more hidden form. Modern schemes do not require physical presence at all. A significant share of operations is already moving to P2P platforms, online exchangers, droppers, dead drops, and crypto ATMs, which raids on specific addresses do not affect.
Moreover, such operations often detain only rank-and-file operatives. The organizers, as a rule, are abroad or use a multi-level system of intermediaries where operatives do not know each other. This creates only the appearance of active enforcement, not real pressure on the criminal business.
Corruption risks deserve separate mention. Physical exchangers cannot exist without "protection"—landlords, security, corrupt officials, or law enforcement. As long as these connections are not exposed, the closure of some locations will be offset by the opening of others under the patronage of new protectors.
Risks for bona fide participants
Bona fide market participants are currently in a legal fog. Even with complete innocence, they may become targets of operational measures, blocks, and criminal prosecution due to unclear criteria and the absence of protective mechanisms. The raids themselves harm landlords and neighboring stores: blocked entrances, the presence of law enforcement, and negative news coverage scare off customers, causing long-term reputational damage.
Given the geopolitical situation, the raids are an understandable measure. They are an effective tool for disrupting specific operations, demonstrating state will, and gathering intelligence on criminal networks. However, strategically, the problem is not solved without creating a legal exchange infrastructure, controlling online channels, and internationally prosecuting the organizers. Otherwise, the fraud conveyor belt will recover faster than law enforcement can conduct new searches.
My conclusion: this is a game of cat and mouse where the regulator has no trump cards yet. Until a clear and accessible legal alternative is created, the shadow market will merely adapt, becoming increasingly decentralized and elusive. Raids are a symptom, not a cure.