Raids on "Gorbushka" and in "City" are just cosmetics: shadow crypto exchangers in Russia will continue to live
The recent raids at "Novaya Gorbushka" and the detentions in "Moscow-City" are not a death sentence for shadow crypto exchangers, but merely a targeted strike at specific links in their chains. This opinion was expressed by Alexander Brazhnikov, Director of the Russian Association of Cryptoeconomics, Artificial Intelligence and Blockchain (RAKIB). According to him, these measures have an effect, but it is temporary and does not solve the systemic problem.
The Power of Raids: What They Actually Achieve
The main blow falls on the key link of fraudulent schemes. Phone scammers do not work with bank accounts directly—this is too risky due to oversight by FinCERT and blocks under Federal Law No. 115-FZ. Therefore, their logistics rely on illegal exchangers: they accept cash from couriers, convert it into cryptocurrency, and withdraw it to foreign wallets. The detention of workers, seizure of equipment, and freezing of channels temporarily break this chain. Victims get a chance to recover part of their funds, and criminal groups lose infrastructure and income.
The raids in "Moscow-City" and at "Gorbushka" hit exactly this point. The detention of workers, seizure of equipment, and freezing of channels for some time break the entire chain. Victims get a chance to recover part of the money, and specific criminal groups lose infrastructure and income.
The second aspect is the demonstration of the inevitability of punishment. The initiation of criminal cases under Part 4 of Article 159 of the Criminal Code (up to 10 years of imprisonment) is a powerful deterrent. Real arrests, unlike "virtual" warnings, force some potential perpetrators to abandon such earnings. The third point is the reduction of infrastructure: each closed exchanger shrinks the market, forcing fraudsters to seek new intermediaries, which increases their costs and risks.
Why This Does Not Solve the Problem
The main reason for the existence of illegal exchangers is the lack of a legal alternative for converting cryptocurrency. As long as Russia does not have a sufficient number of legal exchangers with clear rules, the demand for shadow services will not disappear. It merely changes form: the infrastructure quickly recovers, but in a more hidden manner. Modern schemes do not require physical presence. A significant portion of operations already goes through P2P platforms, online exchangers, droppers, dead drops, and crypto ATMs, so raids on specific addresses do not affect this infrastructure.
As a result of the raids, mostly rank-and-file executors are detained: cashiers, operators, couriers. The organizers of the schemes, as a rule, are abroad or use a multi-level system of intermediaries where executors do not know each other. Criminal cases against rank-and-file participants do not stop the criminal business but merely create the appearance of active struggle.
Corruption risks should also be noted separately. Physical exchangers cannot exist without "protection"—landlords, security, local corrupt officials, or law enforcement. As long as these connections are not exposed, the closure of some points will be compensated by the opening of others under the patronage of new "protectors." High-profile operations with masks and journalists are often timed to reporting dates and create the false impression that the problem is being solved.
Risks for Law-Abiding Participants
Law-abiding market participants in Russia are currently in a legal fog. Even with complete innocence, they may become targets of operational measures, blocks, and criminal prosecution due to unclear criteria. Searches in shopping centers cause damage to landlords, neighboring stores, and services. Blocked entrances, the presence of law enforcement, and negative news coverage scare away customers, reducing revenue and causing long-term reputational harm.
Given the geopolitical situation, raids and searches are an understandable measure. This can be effective as a tool for disrupting specific operations, demonstrating state will, and a way to gather information about criminal networks.
Strategically, the problem is not solved without creating a legal exchange infrastructure, controlling online channels, and internationally prosecuting the organizers. Otherwise, the fraudulent conveyor belt will recover faster than law enforcement can conduct new searches.
My analysis: Raids are a tactical victory, but strategically they resemble fighting windmills. As long as the regulator does not offer a working mechanism for legal cryptocurrency exchange, the shadow market will only adapt, becoming increasingly decentralized and invulnerable. The key question is not the number of searches, but the creation of a clear legal environment that makes gray schemes economically unviable.