Raids on "Gorbushka" and in "City" are only a targeted strike: why shadow crypto exchangers in Russia will continue to operate
Searches at "Novaya Gorbushka" and detentions in "Moscow-City" are high-profile but, in essence, targeted strikes against the infrastructure of shadow crypto exchangers. They disrupt specific chains and create a temporary effect, but they do not solve the systemic problem that generates this market in Russia. This is my analysis, based on assessments from industry experts, including the position of RACIB Director Alexander Brazhnikov.
The effect of such measures is targeted and temporary. Raids temporarily tear apart the infrastructure of fraudulent schemes, but the illegal exchange market itself quickly recovers. It is important to understand this so as not to harbor illusions about a "victory" over the gray sector.
What is the strength of such raids?
First, they strike at the key link in fraudsters' logistics. They do not work with bank accounts directly—that is too risky due to FinCERT oversight and blocks under Federal Law No. 115-FZ. Instead, they use illegal exchangers that accept cash from couriers, convert it into cryptocurrency, and transfer it to foreign wallets. Raids hit precisely here: detaining workers, seizing equipment, and freezing channels temporarily breaks the entire chain. Victims get a chance to recover part of their money, and specific criminal groups lose infrastructure and income.
Second, they demonstrate the inevitability of punishment. For ordinary participants—exchange employees and couriers—the initiation of criminal cases under Part 4 of Article 159 of the Criminal Code (up to 10 years in prison) is a powerful deterrent. Unlike "virtual" warnings, real arrests and the prospect of lengthy sentences force some potential operatives to abandon such earnings.
Third, they reduce infrastructure. Each closed illegal exchanger shrinks the market, forcing fraudsters to seek new intermediaries, which increases their costs and risks. If raids become systematic rather than one-off, this could lead to a shortage of such services and rising costs, making schemes less profitable.
Why does this not fully solve the problem?
The main reason illegal exchangers exist is the lack of sufficient legal infrastructure for converting cryptocurrency. As long as Russia lacks an adequate number of legal crypto exchangers with clear rules, demand for illegal services does not disappear but merely changes form: infrastructure quickly recovers, albeit in a more hidden manner.
Modern fraudulent schemes do not require physical presence. A significant portion of operations already runs through P2P platforms, online exchangers, droppers, dead drops, and crypto ATMs, so raids on specific addresses do not affect this infrastructure. Moreover, after high-profile searches, fraudsters may move into an even less controlled environment.
As a result of raids, mostly rank-and-file operatives are detained: cashiers, operators, couriers. Scheme organizers, as a rule, are abroad or use a multi-level system of intermediaries where operatives do not know each other. Criminal cases against ordinary participants do not stop the criminal business; they merely create the appearance of active enforcement.
Risks for bona fide participants
Bona fide market participants in Russia are currently in a zone of legal fog. Even with complete innocence, they may become targets of operational measures, blocks, and criminal prosecution due to unclear criteria, errors, and the absence of protective mechanisms. Searches and raids in shopping centers harm landlords, neighboring stores, and services. Blocked entrances, the presence of law enforcement, and negative news coverage scare off customers, reduce revenue, and cause long-term reputational damage. The state, while fighting illegal exchangers, indirectly punishes law-abiding entrepreneurs.
Given the geopolitical situation, raids and searches are an understandable measure. This can be effective as a tool for disrupting specific operations, demonstrating state resolve, and gathering intelligence on criminal networks. However, strategically, the problem is not solved without creating legal exchange infrastructure, controlling online channels, and internationally prosecuting organizers. Otherwise, the fraudulent conveyor belt will recover faster than law enforcement can conduct new searches.
My expert assessment: until a transparent and accessible legal alternative for cryptocurrency exchange is created, the shadow market will only adapt, becoming increasingly decentralized and resistant to raids. This is a systemic problem requiring not only punitive but also regulatory solutions.