Raid on "Gorbushka" and in "City": why the shadow exchange of cryptocurrency will not disappear
The high-profile raids and arrests at illegal crypto exchangers are merely a targeted strike against specific links in criminal schemes, not a solution to the systemic problem. That is my assessment of the situation unfolding in Moscow. These measures do have an effect, but it is temporary and localized: the infrastructure of fraudulent networks quickly recovers once the wave of operational activities subsides.
The Power of Raids: What They Actually Deliver
First, they strike at the key logistical link. Phone scammers do not work directly with bank accounts—the risk of blocks under Federal Law 115-FZ and oversight by FinCERT is too high. Therefore, their chain closes on illegal exchangers, which accept cash from couriers, convert it into cryptocurrency, and withdraw it to foreign wallets. The raids in Moscow City and at Gorbushka hit exactly this point: arrests, equipment seizures, and channel freezes temporarily sever the entire chain. Victims get a chance to recover part of their funds, and specific criminal groups lose income and infrastructure.
Second, they demonstrate the inevitability of punishment. Criminal cases under Part 4 of Article 159 of the Criminal Code (up to 10 years in prison) are a powerful deterrent. Real arrests, unlike virtual warnings, force some potential operatives to abandon this kind of earnings.
Third, they reduce infrastructure. Each closed exchanger shrinks the market, forcing scammers to seek new intermediaries, which raises their costs and risks. If raids become systematic rather than one-off, this could lead to a shortage of such services and rising prices for them, making the schemes less profitable.
Why the Problem Is Not Fully Solved
The main reason illegal exchangers exist is the lack of sufficient legal infrastructure for converting cryptocurrency. As long as Russia lacks clear rules and a sufficient number of legal exchangers, demand for shadow services does not disappear—it merely changes form. The infrastructure quickly recovers, but in a more hidden guise.
Modern fraudulent schemes do not require physical presence. A significant portion of operations already runs through P2P platforms, online exchangers, droppers, dead drops, and crypto ATMs. Raids on specific addresses do not affect this infrastructure. Moreover, after high-profile searches, scammers may move into an even less controlled environment.
As a result of the raids, mostly rank-and-file operatives are detained: cashiers, operators, couriers. The organizers of the schemes, as a rule, are abroad or use a multi-level system of intermediaries where operatives do not know each other. Criminal cases against rank-and-file participants do not stop the criminal business; they merely create the appearance of active enforcement.
Corruption risks deserve separate mention. Physical exchangers cannot exist without "protection"—landlords, security, local corrupt officials, or law enforcement. As long as these corrupt ties are not exposed, the closure of some points will be offset by the opening of others under the patronage of new "protectors."
High-profile operations with masks and journalists are often timed to reporting dates or public resonance and create the false impression that the problem is being solved. Their effect is real but short-lived: if the noisy phase is not followed by systematic work, the market quickly recovers.
Risks for Law-Abiding Participants
Law-abiding market participants in Russia are currently in a zone of legal fog. Even with complete innocence, they may become targets of operational measures, blocks, and criminal prosecution due to unclear criteria, errors, and the absence of protective mechanisms. Searches in shopping centers harm landlords, neighboring stores, and services, scare off customers, and cause long-term reputational damage.
Given the geopolitical situation, raids are an understandable measure. This can be effective as a tool for disrupting specific operations, demonstrating state will, and a way to gather intelligence on criminal networks. But strategically, the problem is not solved without creating legal exchange infrastructure, controlling online channels, and internationally prosecuting the organizers. Otherwise, the fraudulent conveyor belt will recover faster than law enforcement can conduct new searches.
My conclusion: targeted raids are a necessary but insufficient measure. Without creating transparent rules for crypto exchange and genuinely fighting corruption, the shadow market will only adapt, becoming increasingly covert and resilient.