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The crypto community is once again holding its breath: will the "golden cross" finally form on Bitcoin's chart, which many perceive as a signal for the end of the prolonged bearish phase. My analysis of historical data and current market dynamics shows that the answer to this question is more complex than it seems at first glance.

Record Duration of the Bearish Phase

Since the "death cross" in mid-November 2025, 277 days have already passed — one of the longest such phases in the asset's history. During this time, Bitcoin has lost about a quarter of its value, reaching a local low near $58,525 in early July 2026. The current configuration of moving averages — the 50-day at $65,000 and the 200-day around $69,000 — shows a gap of approximately 7%, which continues to narrow.

Notably, of the thirteen similar bearish crossovers since 2011, only three have led to full-fledged prolonged bear markets. In the remaining cases, the signal turned out to be false or premature. This calls into question the very predictive value of this pattern.

The Arithmetic of Convergence

A key point many overlook: the convergence of moving averages occurs not only due to price growth. The mechanics of calculating the 200 MA are such that "expensive" February and March quotes above $80,000 gradually fall out of the calculation window. This automatically pulls the line down, even if the market remains at current levels.

My calculations show: if the price stays around $75,000–77,000, the crossover will occur as early as mid-September. With a pullback to $66,000 — only in December. However, if it falls below $60,000, the signal will not form at all, which would mean a continuation of the downtrend.

Signal Reliability

Historical analysis of bullish crossovers demonstrates a consistent pattern: the "golden cross" appears on average 60 days after the actual bottom, when the price has already managed to rise by 54%. This makes it more of a confirming rather than a leading indicator. In three out of four cases, confirming the reversal proves correct, but by that point, a significant portion of the move has already been completed.

Notably, trading based on moving average signals since 2015 has underperformed passive asset holding. However, the depth of drawdowns is smaller: 72–76% versus 84% under a "buy and hold" strategy. For conservative investors, this could be an argument in favor of using such signals for risk management.

Fundamental Confirmations

On-chain metrics add optimism. The MVRV Z-Score indicator is at 0.37 — in the deeply oversold zone, while aSOPR below one indicates that market participants are, on average, locking in losses. Eight of the twelve VanEck capitulation indicators tracked are in the "green zone."

However, there is also a concerning signal: long-term holders have reduced their holdings by approximately 356,000 BTC over the month. Such profit-taking after a significant decline is not typical of a completed accumulation phase.

Cyclicality as a Guide

The historical duration of bearish phases is about a year. Counting from the last peak places the potential bottom of the current cycle between October 5 and November 16, 2026. However, the drawdown depth of 53% from the ATH is significantly smaller than the usual 77–85%, which may indicate structural changes in the market. The emergence of spot ETFs, growing institutional participation, and the absence of systemic crashes make corrections shallower.

However, with a market capitalization of around $1.5 trillion, Bitcoin can no longer move with its previous amplitude. Perhaps a 53% decline is the new norm for a maturing asset, rather than a sign of an incomplete phase.

My conclusion: the "golden cross" is not a magical predictor, but merely a confirmation of a reversal that has already occurred. To confirm a trend change, it is worth waiting for a combination of signals: recovery in spot demand, growth in long-term holder activity, and price consolidation above key levels. Only then can the moving average crossover be considered a reliable bullish signal.