On Wednesday, August 26, Nvidia will present its financial results for the second quarter. The market is holding its breath: analysts forecast record revenue of nearly $92 billion and net profit of $51.5 billion, representing 95% year-over-year growth.
These figures are not just dry metrics from a single issuer. They will serve as a litmus test for the entire technology industry. Nvidia's forecasts directly impact the capital expenditures of chip competitors, cloud giants, and ultimately, the viability of the entire artificial intelligence ecosystem.
The domino effect: why everyone is watching Nvidia
Nvidia has beaten Wall Street earnings expectations for 14 consecutive quarters. Last quarter, net profit soared 210% compared to the same period in 2025, although forecasts had suggested a more modest 126%. However, this streak of success has raised the bar of expectations to the sky. Notably, the company's shares are currently experiencing their longest losing streak since 2022, even as analysts have raised their sales forecasts from $78 billion at the start of the year to the current $92 billion.
The stakes are higher than ever. What's on the line is not just one corporation's report. At OpenAI, for example, executives recently admitted to investors that quarterly revenue grew only 18% while losses increased. The largest cloud providers are increasingly financing data center construction with borrowed funds, turning AI spending into the main systemic risk for the market. Nvidia itself, aware of this vulnerability, is participating in a $500 billion AI project financing program alongside leading banks and has invested in energy infrastructure, particularly in Cloverleaf Infrastructure.
Bears prepare for a correction
It is telling that after the last four reports, Nvidia shares fell despite excellent results. The options market is currently pricing in a 5.3% price movement after Wednesday's release. Over the past year, the stock has on average reacted to earnings with a 4.8% decline. The bulk of trading volume is in put options, which profit from a price drop from Friday's close of $214.75. Key bets are concentrated in the $205–210 range — traders fear that expensive memory and higher borrowing costs will force buyers to cut AI spending.
However, not everyone is pessimistic. HSBC analyst Frank Lee raised his price target from $325 to $360, joining Bank of America's positive assessment. He notes Nvidia's strengthening bargaining position with suppliers and its involvement in developing open-source AI software. Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management compares the situation not to the Super Bowl but to the World Cup final: the scale is entirely different.
My view: Nvidia's report will be a watershed moment for the entire AI market. Even flawless numbers may not save the stock from a correction if the company fails to provide an ultra-optimistic forecast for the next quarter. The market has grown accustomed to miracles, and now every "just good" result will be perceived as a disappointment. Investors should prepare for heightened volatility not only in NVDA but across the entire technology sector.