This week, the cryptocurrency market has been frozen in anticipation of two landmark events: Nvidia's quarterly earnings report on Wednesday and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole on Friday. However, as my observations of macroeconomic flows show, the stock market has long since priced in future corporate earnings rather than reacting to immediate reports or verbal interventions from regulators.
Jenny Harrington, managing director of Gilman Hill Asset Management, rightly notes on the Halftime Report that this year's stock gains have been driven by companies' fundamental metrics, not isolated events. This makes sense — the market looks ahead, and one-off triggers like Nvidia's report or the Fed chair's speech are no longer capable of shifting an established trend.
The crypto market has already reacted
Unlike traditional exchanges, bitcoin is demonstrating its own dynamics. Last week, the U.S. Treasury expanded its bond buyback program, which led to a decline in long-dated yields and a sharp impulse for digital assets. BTC jumped above $75,000 and has held these levels for several days — this is not a coincidence but a natural reaction to the influx of liquidity.
Gautam Chhugani, senior analyst at Bernstein, calls this behavior a historical pattern: bitcoin traditionally responds well to monetary expansion. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes holds a similar view: after the Treasury's actions, avoiding risky assets would be a mistake. If the current rally is indeed driven by liquidity, then Friday's rhetoric from Warsh is no longer as critical — the Treasury's decision has had a far more significant impact.
Why analysts expect new movement
Some specialists believe the market has not fully reacted. Analysts at QCP Capital described the balance of forces as equilibrium, without a clear tilt in either direction. Bitcoin remains within its previous range and has not yet broken through its boundaries.
However, Oscar Muñoz, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, views the situation differently. Warsh has barely spoken publicly since May, and trust in the Fed has suffered as a result. Due to this lack of trust, his Friday speech could seriously sway markets. Cryptocurrencies are also affected by factors unrelated to stocks: Warsh sold his personal digital asset portfolio before being confirmed as Fed chair, and appointed a bitcoin investor as co-chair of the regulator's relevant working group. Any statement he makes about digital asset policy will move the crypto market regardless of talk about rates.
Thus, the stock market is ignoring Nvidia's report and the Fed for a clear reason: investors have already priced in future corporate earnings. Cryptocurrencies lack such a foundation, so the argument that "everything is already priced in" may not be as relevant. Bitcoin remains hostage to macroeconomic liquidity, and in the coming days we will see whether it can break out of its current range.
My conclusion: the market has entered a waiting phase, but the key driver is not reports or speeches, but real money flows. Watch the Treasury's actions and the bond yield reaction — that will provide more signals than any verbal interventions.