The market for the first cryptocurrency is sending clear signals of a reversal. Over the past seven days, bitcoin has not only recovered against the US dollar but has also broken through key levels relative to gold. This event, in my assessment, marks the end of a prolonged bearish phase and the beginning of a new growth cycle.
Analyzing the dynamics of the BTC/gold pair, I noticed an important pattern: the ratio of bitcoin's price to gold turned around earlier than the exchange rate against the dollar. This is a classic leading indicator that has often preceded a trend change in the past. The peak of the BTC/gold pair was recorded in December 2024, while the dollar exchange rate reached its high only in October 2025. The bottom, however, formed in the reverse sequence: the pair against gold found its low in February 2026, and the exchange rate against the dollar—about five months later, in July.
It is precisely this sequence that explains the pessimism of many investors. Bitcoin was updating dollar records but was simultaneously losing to gold. Any decline, even a minor one, was perceived painfully, since in the previous growth cycle the coin lagged behind the precious metal.
Synchronous breakout: what has changed
Now the situation is fundamentally different. From last Wednesday through Friday, bitcoin rose by approximately 21%, briefly climbing above $79,000. I associate this momentum with the US Treasury's decision to buy back long-term bonds, which added liquidity to the market. However, the key point lies elsewhere: BTC broke through levels simultaneously against both the dollar and gold.
Over the month, the coin has gained more than 22% against the USD and 6.6% against gold. Such a synchronous breakout is a rare phenomenon that points to a fundamental shift in the market balance. If previously bitcoin demonstrated only local strength against fiat currency, now it is confidently outpacing the traditional safe-haven asset as well.
After such rapid growth, a correction is certainly possible. However, as practice shows, a significant price decline is followed by strong demand from buyers. The bear market, judging by all indicators, is over. If the BTC/gold pair is again giving an early signal, and both directions are moving up simultaneously, we have every reason to expect a successful 12–18 months and far larger opportunities for growth in the future.
My view as an analyst: bitcoin's synchronous breakout against the dollar and gold is not just a technical signal but confirmation of a macrotrend shift. Institutional players, including large corporate positions, are beginning to reassess their strategies. Investors should closely monitor the behavior of the BTC/gold pair in the coming weeks—it will remain the main barometer of market sentiment.