The market for the leading cryptocurrency is sending clear signals of a trend reversal. Over the past week, Bitcoin has not only recovered its losses but has broken through crucial price barriers in two dimensions at once—against the US dollar and against gold. I view this event as a marker of the end of the bearish phase and the beginning of a new, potentially the most powerful growth cycle in the asset's history.
The key indicator—the BTC/gold ratio—turned around earlier than the dollar pair. This is highly telling. In December 2024, the pair against gold reached its peak, while the exchange rate against the dollar only updated its high in October 2025. The bottom for BTC/gold was recorded in February 2026, whereas the dollar low came in July—with a difference of roughly five months. This sequence explains a lot about investor behavior. Bitcoin was updating dollar records but was losing to gold at the same time, which created a false impression of weakness and fueled pessimism.
Current dynamics: a synchronized upward surge
Now the picture is fundamentally different. Over the past week, Bitcoin has gained about 21% and has come close to the $79,000 mark. I associate such a rapid surge with the US Treasury's decision to buy back long-term bonds, which added liquidity to the markets. However, that is not the main point. For the first time in a long while, we are witnessing a synchronized breakout: over the month, the coin has risen more than 22% against the dollar and 6.6% against gold. This indicates that capital is returning to Bitcoin as an independent safe-haven asset, not just as a risky instrument.
Forecast: a correction is possible, but the trend is set
After such a sharp rise, some correction would be natural. However, in my assessment, any significant decline will be met with strong demand from large buyers. The bear market, judging by all technical and macroeconomic signals, is over. If the BTC/gold pair is again giving an early reversal signal, and now both directions are moving up simultaneously, we have every reason to count on a successful 12–18 months, and possibly a much longer period of growth.
Interestingly, this confidence is shared by major institutional players. For example, Strive, one of the notable Bitcoin holders, ranks seventh among public companies by the volume of coins on its balance sheet—20,246 BTC. At the same time, their average purchase price is $94,345, which is about 22% above the current rate. Despite the recent growth, the company's unrealized loss is still estimated at around $350 million. This certainly adds intrigue: if the forecast proves correct, we will witness not just a return to the mean, but a full-fledged bullish supercycle.
My conclusion: the synchronized update of levels against the dollar and gold is not a coincidence but a fundamental shift in the perception of Bitcoin as an asset. Investors should prepare for volatility, but the overall direction of movement is now obvious.