The bearish trend in the bitcoin market appears to be over. Over the past week, the leading cryptocurrency has broken through key resistance levels against both the US dollar and gold, which is a powerful technical signal of a shift in market phase.
The focus is on the dynamics of the BTC/gold pair, which, as historical practice shows, turns around earlier than bitcoin's dollar-denominated rate. In my observation, it is this ratio that serves as a more accurate indicator of major investors' sentiment, as it smooths out fiat currency volatility and reflects the asset's real purchasing power.
Why the BTC/gold pair leads dollar metrics
The peak of the bitcoin-to-gold ratio was recorded in December 2024. Meanwhile, the dollar-denominated rate only reached its all-time high in October 2025—nearly ten months later. A mirror image was seen at the lows: the bottom of the BTC/gold pair occurred in February 2026, while the dollar price only hit its minimum in July, five months later.
This asynchrony largely explains the pessimism that prevailed among market participants. Bitcoin was setting dollar records but consistently losing ground to gold. Any decline, even a minor one, was perceived painfully, especially against the backdrop of the previous growth cycle, where the coin showed leading dynamics relative to the precious metal.
A sharp surge and a shift in the balance
However, the situation has now changed dramatically. From last Wednesday through Friday, bitcoin gained about 21%, briefly rising above $79,000. I attribute this momentum to the US Treasury's decision to buy back long-term bonds, which boosted appetite for risk assets.
Key point: the breakout occurred simultaneously in both pairs. Over the month, the coin rose more than 22% against the dollar and 6.6% against gold. Such a sharp synchronized surge is a rare phenomenon, indicating the arrival of large institutional capital rather than speculative play in a single market.
Despite the rapid rise, some correction after such an impulse is quite possible. However, on any significant pullback, I expect strong demand from buyers who previously missed the chance to enter a position. My forecast: if the BTC/gold pair is again giving an early signal, and both directions are now moving up simultaneously, then we are on the threshold of an extremely favorable period over the next 12–18 months, with potential for much larger growth further down the line.
Context is also important: one of the largest corporate positions in bitcoin belongs to Strive, which holds 20,246 BTC—the seventh-largest among public companies. The average purchase price is $94,345, roughly 22% above the asset's current value. The company's unrealized loss is still estimated at $350 million, adding intrigue to the question of how confidently institutional players are willing to hold their positions in anticipation of a new cycle.
My verdict: the synchronized breakout against the dollar and gold is not just a technical signal but a fundamental confirmation of a trend reversal. Investors should closely monitor the dynamics of the BTC/gold pair, which historically leads dollar metrics and could provide a head start of several months for entering a position before the main rally.