Over the past week, the leading cryptocurrency has made a powerful surge, breaking through critical resistance levels in two dimensions at once — against the US dollar and gold. I view this event as a crucial technical signal that could mark the end of a prolonged correction.
The focus is on the dynamics of the BTC/gold pair. This indicator, which is often overlooked, is actually an earlier and more accurate harbinger of a reversal than the dollar-denominated rate. Historically, lows against gold have formed earlier than those against the dollar. In this cycle, we observed the same pattern: the bottom of the BTC/gold pair occurred in February 2026, while the dollar-denominated low was only reached in July, with a lag of roughly five months.
It was precisely this sequence that fueled pessimism among investors. Bitcoin kept setting dollar records, but consistently lagged behind gold. Any, even minor, decline in the exchange rate was perceived painfully against the backdrop of the previous cycle, where the coin trailed the precious metal. However, the situation has now changed dramatically.
Synchronous Breakout and Trend Reversal
In recent days, bitcoin has risen by approximately 21% and briefly climbed above $79,000. I associate this momentum with the US Treasury's decision to buy back long-term bonds, which added liquidity to the markets. But what matters even more is that the asset has broken through its levels simultaneously against both the dollar and gold. Over the month, the gain against USD exceeded 22%, while against gold it was 6.6%. It is precisely this synchronicity of the breakouts that serves as the key bullish argument.
It is telling that major institutional players are also expressing such a confident view. For example, the head of Strive is convinced that the bear market is over. He predicts that the new growth cycle will be the most powerful in the history of cryptocurrencies. According to him, if the BTC/gold pair has again given an early signal, and now both directions are moving upward simultaneously, then one can count on a successful 12–18 months and even more significant prospects.
It is worth noting that such confidence is backed not only by technical analysis but also by real positions. Strive holds 20,246 BTC on its balance sheet, ranking seventh among public companies. Their average purchase price is $94,345 — approximately 22% above the asset's current value. Despite the recent rally, the company's unrealized loss is still estimated at around $350 million.
My conclusion: The synchronous breakout of levels against fiat currency and gold is a strong bullish signal that cannot be ignored. However, remember that after such rapid growth, the likelihood of a correction is high. Nevertheless, if we are indeed seeing an early signal from the BTC/gold pair, then any significant drawdowns will likely be met with strong demand from buyers. This cycle could truly turn out to be historic.