A key signal for a trend reversal in the market for the first cryptocurrency has been given. Over the past week, Bitcoin simultaneously broke through significant levels against both the US dollar and gold, suggesting that the correction phase has come to an end.
Analyzing the dynamics of recent days, I note the leading nature of the BTC/gold pair. This indicator has historically turned around earlier than the dollar exchange rate. We are now seeing exactly this picture: the ratio of Bitcoin's price to gold reached a local bottom back in February, while the low against the dollar only formed in July—with a lag of about five months.
This sequence explains the pessimism that prevailed among market participants. Bitcoin was updating dollar highs but was still lagging behind gold. Any, even minor, decline in quotes was perceived painfully against the backdrop of the previous cycle, where the precious metal showed more confident growth.
The essence of the reversal: synchronized movement
Now the situation is fundamentally different. From last Wednesday through Friday, Bitcoin gained about 21%, approaching the $79,000 mark. I associate this momentum with the US Treasury's decision to buy back long-term bonds, which added liquidity to the markets.
What matters more is the fact of a simultaneous breakout of two key levels. Over the month, the first cryptocurrency strengthened against the dollar by more than 22% and against gold by 6.6%. Such synchronization is a rare and powerful signal. After such a rapid move, a correction is certainly possible, but with any significant decline, I expect a strong influx of buyers.
"I am absolutely confident that the bear market has ended. If the BTC/gold pair has again given an early signal, and now both directions are moving up simultaneously, I have every reason to expect a successful 12–18 months and much larger growth opportunities in the future."
This confidence is also supported by fundamental factors. One of the largest corporate positions in Bitcoin is held by the company Strive, which holds 20,246 BTC, ranking seventh among public institutions. The average purchase price of the asset is $94,345, which is about 22% higher than current quotes. Despite the recent growth, the company's unrealized loss is still estimated at around $350 million.
My conclusion: the current simultaneous breakout against the dollar and gold is not just a technical signal, but a marker of a shift in the market paradigm. Institutional players in a serious drawdown are getting a powerful incentive to increase positions on any correction. The coming months could be decisive for the entire cycle.