Key point: over the past week, the leading cryptocurrency has demonstrated a confident breakout of significant resistance levels in two pairs at once—against the US dollar and gold. I view this event as one of the most compelling arguments that the current downtrend has run its course.
Analyzing the dynamics of recent days, I note an important pattern: the BTC/gold ratio turned around earlier than the dollar exchange rate. This is a classic leading indicator, which often signals a shift in sentiment among large investors before traditional dollar pairs do.
The historical picture confirms this logic. The peak of the BTC/gold pair occurred in December 2024, while the dollar high was reached only in October 2025. The lows formed in reverse order: the bottom against gold was in February 2026, and against the dollar—five months later, in July. This asynchrony explains why many market participants felt discomfort even when dollar records were updated—in gold terms, bitcoin continued to lose ground.
Now the picture has fundamentally changed. Over the week from last Wednesday to Friday, bitcoin gained about 21% and came close to the $79,000 mark. Over the month, growth against the dollar exceeded 22%, and against gold—6.6%. The sharpness of the move and the simultaneous breakout of two key levels indicate that this is not a speculative spike but a structural shift. I consider the US Treasury's decision to buy back long-term bonds as one of the catalysts, which boosted appetite for risk assets.
Position of a major player: confidence backed by capital
It is telling that the head of Strive, which manages the seventh-largest corporate bitcoin portfolio (20,246 BTC), declares full confidence that the bear market is over. At the same time, his company's average purchase price is $94,345—about 22% above the current rate. The unrealized loss reaches $350 million, which explains his interest in a positive scenario. Nevertheless, I am inclined to trust his analysis: the breakout of the BTC/gold pair, which he calls an early signal, indeed often precedes long-term upward trends.
According to his forecast, we are in for one of the most powerful growth cycles in cryptocurrency history. He allows for a short-term correction after the rapid rise but is confident that any significant decline will be met with strong demand.
My comment: The simultaneous breakout against the dollar and gold is a rare and strong confirmation of a trend reversal. However, one should not forget about volatility: current levels require confirmation, and fundamental support from liquidity remains a key factor for the rally to continue over the next 12–18 months.