The market for the leading cryptocurrency is sending clear signals of a reversal. Over the past week, Bitcoin has not just recovered but has broken through key levels against two major benchmark assets at once — the US dollar and gold. I view this event as a powerful technical and fundamental marker of the end of the downtrend.
Note the dynamics of the BTC/gold pair. Its reversal occurred earlier than that of the exchange rate against the dollar. In December 2024, the ratio reached an all-time high, while the dollar peak was only recorded in October 2025. A mirror image emerged at the lows: the bottom against gold came in February 2026, while against the dollar it came in July, with a lag of roughly five months.
This sequence explains why investors remained pessimistic. Bitcoin was updating dollar records but simultaneously losing ground to gold. Any, even minor, decline in quotes was perceived painfully against the backdrop of the precious metal's outpacing growth in the previous cycle.
What changed this week
Now the picture is fundamentally different. From last Wednesday through Friday, Bitcoin rose by about 21%, managing to hold above the $79,000 level. I associate such a sharp impulse with the US Treasury Department's decision to buy back long-term bonds — this is a classic catalyst for risk assets.
The key point is that the breakout occurred in both directions simultaneously. Over the month, the gain against the dollar exceeded 22%, and against gold — 6.6%. Such synchronicity is a rare phenomenon that confirms the strength of the current momentum.
After such rapid growth, a correction cannot be ruled out. However, with any significant decline, I expect a powerful influx of buying from institutional players.
"I am absolutely confident that the bear market is over. If the BTC/gold pair has again given an early signal, and now both directions are moving up simultaneously, I have reason to expect a successful 12–18 months and much larger growth opportunities in the future."
Confidence is also reinforced by the position of one of the largest corporate structures. The Strive fund holds 20,246 BTC, ranking seventh among public institutions. The average purchase price is $94,345 per coin — approximately 22% above the current level. Despite the recent rise, the company's unrealized loss is estimated at around $350 million.
My conclusion: the simultaneous breakout against the dollar and gold is not just a technical signal but a shift in the macroeconomic paradigm. Bitcoin is again beginning to fulfill the function of a safe-haven asset, outpacing traditional defensive instruments. For long-term investors, the current zone looks attractive for building positions, especially given the expected 12–18-month growth cycle.