Over the past week, the leading cryptocurrency has made a powerful surge, breaking through key levels in two pairs at once — against the US dollar and against gold. I view this event as one of the most significant technical signals in recent months, which could mark the end of the correction phase.
Analyzing the dynamics of the BTC/gold pair, I note its leading nature. Back in December 2024, the ratio to gold reached an all-time high, while Bitcoin's dollar price only updated its peak in October 2025. At the same time, the bottom against gold formed in February 2026, while the low against the dollar came roughly five months later. This sequence is not a coincidence but a reflection of shifting sentiment among large investors, who are the first to move into safe-haven assets, with speculative buying following afterward.
It is precisely this asynchrony, in my view, that explains the pessimism prevailing among market participants. Bitcoin was setting dollar records but consistently lagging behind gold. Any decline, even a minor one, was perceived painfully, since in the previous cycle the coin had already fallen behind the precious metal. Now, however, the picture is fundamentally different.
From last Wednesday through Friday, Bitcoin gained about 21%, briefly rising above $79,000. I attribute this momentum to the US Treasury's decision to buy back long-term bonds, which added liquidity to the markets. But the key point is that the coin broke through resistance levels in both pairs simultaneously. Over the month, growth against the dollar exceeded 22%, and against gold — 6.6%. This confirms that the move is not merely speculative but structural in nature.
Despite such a rapid rise, I acknowledge the possibility of a short-term correction. However, based on current data, I believe that any significant pullback will be met with active demand from buyers. The bearish trend, in my assessment, is exhausted. If the BTC/gold pair is again providing an early signal, and now both directions are rising in sync, this opens a window for a successful 12–18 months and, likely, a more extensive bull cycle in the long term.
My confidence is also reinforced by the stance of major institutional players. For example, Strive, which ranks seventh among public companies by BTC holdings, holds 20,246 coins. Their average purchase price is $94,345 — roughly 22% above the current level, indicating a long-term bet on growth despite temporary losses of about $350 million. To me, this is a signal that "smart money" sees opportunity where retail investors see risk.