The market for the first cryptocurrency is sending clear signals of a trend change. Over the past week, bitcoin has broken through key resistance levels against two major assets at once — the US dollar and gold. This event, in my observation, marks the end of a prolonged correction phase and the beginning of a new, potentially the most powerful growth cycle in the history of digital gold.
Why the BTC/gold pair turned out to be an indicator earlier
In December 2024, the bitcoin-to-gold ratio reached an all-time high, while the coin's dollar rate only updated its peak in October 2025. However, the bottom in these pairs formed in the reverse order: BTC/gold found its low in February 2026, while the price against the dollar only in July, roughly five months later. This sequence explains why investors remained in pessimism: even amid record dollar highs, bitcoin continued to lose to gold. Any, even minor, decline in quotes was perceived extremely painfully against the backdrop of the previous cycle, where the coin consistently lagged behind the precious metal.
The breakout and its driving forces
Now the situation has changed dramatically. From last Wednesday through Friday, bitcoin rose by about 21%, coming close to the $79,000 mark. At times, the growth was even sharper. In professional circles, this momentum is linked to the US Treasury's decision to buy back long-term bonds, which added liquidity to markets. But the key point is different: the coin broke through resistance levels against both the dollar and gold simultaneously. Over the month, the gain against USD exceeded 22%, and against gold — 6.6%.
Outlook and risks
Such rapid movement naturally raises concerns about a correction. However, I share the view that even with a significant pullback, we will see strong demand from buyers. The bear market, judging by all technical and macroeconomic signals, is over. If the BTC/gold pair previously gave early reversal signals, and now both growth directions have synchronized, then the 12–18 month horizon looks extremely promising. That said, one should not discount corporate realities: major holders, such as Strive with a position of 20,246 BTC (seventh place among public companies), are currently at a loss — their average entry price is $94,345, which is about 22% above current quotes. The company's unrealized loss is estimated at around $350 million, which adds volatility in the short term.
My conclusion: the simultaneous breakout of resistance against the dollar and gold is not just a technical signal, but a fundamental change in market structure. Investors should prepare for high volatility, but the overall direction of movement is now obvious — upward.