The market for the first cryptocurrency is sending clear signals of a reversal. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has confidently broken through key resistance levels in two dimensions at once—against the US dollar and against gold. I view this event as one of the most significant technical signals in recent months, capable of marking the end of a prolonged correction.
Analyzing the dynamics of the BTC/gold pair, its leading nature cannot be ignored. Historically, it is this ratio that has turned around earlier than Bitcoin's dollar-denominated price. In December 2024, the pair reached a local peak, while the dollar-denominated high was only recorded in October 2025. A mirror image was observed at the lows: the BTC/gold bottom occurred in February 2026, while the exchange rate against the dollar only updated its low in July—with a lag of about five months.
Why this matters for investors
This sequence largely explains the pessimism of market participants. Bitcoin was updating dollar-denominated records, but at the same time consistently losing to gold. Any, even minor, decline was perceived painfully, especially against the backdrop of the previous cycle, where the coin also lagged behind the precious metal.
However, the picture is now fundamentally different. From last Wednesday through Friday, Bitcoin rose by approximately 21%, briefly climbing above $79,000. I associate this momentum with the US Treasury's decision to buy back long-term bonds, which boosted demand for risk assets. Notably, the growth was simultaneous and sharp: over the month, the coin gained more than 22% against the dollar and 6.6% against gold.
Position of major players
Confidence in a trend change is also reinforced by the actions of institutional investors. Strive, a company among the largest Bitcoin holders among public institutions, ranks seventh with 20,246 BTC. Their average purchase price is $94,345 per coin—approximately 22% above the current value. Despite the recent rally, the company's unrealized loss is still estimated at $350 million.
At the same time, Strive's own head acknowledges the possibility of a correction after such a rapid rise. However, he is convinced that any significant decline will meet strong demand from buyers. In his words, the bear market is over, and the simultaneous breakout of levels against the dollar and gold opens a window of opportunity for the next 12–18 months.
My comment: The leading dynamics of the BTC/gold pair is a classic indicator of a shift in market sentiment. The fact that Bitcoin has begun to outpace gold signals a return of risk appetite, not just a short-term bounce. However, investors should remember: with the average entry price of major funds above current levels, any correction could be deep, but it is precisely such moments that often become the best entry points for long-term positions.