The market for the first cryptocurrency is showing clear signs of a reversal. Over the past week, Bitcoin has demonstrated impressive momentum, breaking through critical price barriers simultaneously against both the US dollar and gold. In my view, this event marks not just a local rebound, but a potential end to the prolonged bearish phase and the beginning of a new, possibly the most powerful growth cycle in the asset's history.
The key indicator here is the BTC/gold ratio. It peaked back in December 2024, while Bitcoin's dollar price only hit a new all-time high in October 2025. However, the lows formed in reverse order: the pair against gold found its bottom in February 2026, while the rate against the dollar only did so in July, with a gap of roughly five months. This sequence holds enormous significance for understanding market sentiment.
It was precisely this lag that fueled pessimism among investors. Bitcoin was setting dollar records, but it continued to lose ground to gold. Any, even minor, decline in the rate was perceived as extremely painful against the backdrop of past cycles, where the coin confidently outpaced the precious metal. Now, however, the picture has fundamentally changed.
A Signal for Change
Over the past few days, Bitcoin has risen by approximately 21% and is now closing in on the $79,000 mark. This surge is backed by several fundamental factors, including recent decisions by the US Treasury to buy back long-term bonds, which has boosted appetite for risk assets.
But most importantly, Bitcoin has simultaneously broken through levels against both the dollar and gold. Over the month, the gain against USD exceeded 22%, and against gold, 6.6%. This indicates that the asset is strengthening not merely against a weak fiat currency, but is demonstrating absolute strength, outpacing even the traditional safe-haven asset. In the past, such synchronized breakouts served as harbingers of the most aggressive phases of rallies.
It is worth noting that after such rapid growth, a correction is possible. However, according to my analysis, any significant decline will be met with strong demand from buyers. The bear market, judging by all indicators, is over. If both directions—against the dollar and against gold—continue to rise simultaneously, this creates favorable ground for confident growth over the next 12–18 months.
Institutional Context
This confidence is also reinforced by the stance of major players. The company Strive, one of the notable institutional holders of Bitcoin, ranks seventh among public institutions with 20,246 BTC on its balance sheet. Their average purchase price is around $94,345 per coin, which is approximately 22% above the current value. Despite the recent rise, the company's unrealized loss is still estimated at around $350 million, which explains why their forecasts carry such weight for the market.
My view: The synchronized breakout of key levels is a rare and powerful technical signal. Combined with growing institutional interest and macroeconomic stimuli, the current situation could indeed become the starting point for a new bullish supercycle. However, investors should remain cautious and not chase the price at the peak of emotions, but rather build a strategy that accounts for potential volatile corrections.