Over the past week, the leading cryptocurrency managed to break through key levels against two major safe-haven assets at once — the US dollar and gold. In my assessment, this event marks not just a local rebound, but a structural reversal that many market participants have been waiting for for months.
A careful analysis of the dynamics shows that the BTC/gold pair turned around earlier than the exchange rate against the dollar. This is an extremely important signal that often precedes the start of a full-fledged bull cycle. The peak of the bitcoin-to-gold ratio was recorded back in December 2024, while the coin updated its dollar high only in October 2025. The lows, however, formed in the reverse order: the bottom against gold came in February 2026, and against the dollar — in July, five months later.
It is this sequence that explains why many investors were in a state of pessimism. Bitcoin was updating dollar records, but at the same time consistently losing to gold. Any, even minor, decline in the exchange rate was perceived painfully, since in the previous growth cycle the coin lagged behind the precious metal.
A sharp surge and a shift in the balance
However, the situation has now changed dramatically. From last Wednesday through Friday, bitcoin rose by approximately 21%, briefly climbing above $79,000. I attribute such a rapid surge to the US Treasury's decision to buy back long-term bonds, which boosted demand for risk assets and triggered a wave of short position closures.
It is telling that the coin broke through levels against both the dollar and gold simultaneously. Over the month, the rise against USD exceeded 22%, and against gold — 6.6%. Such a synchronized breakout is a rare phenomenon, and it speaks to the high strength of the current momentum.
Undoubtedly, after such rapid growth, a correction is possible. However, I am convinced that with any significant decline, we will see strong demand from buyers who are just waiting for a convenient entry point. The bear market, judging by all technical and macroeconomic indicators, is over. If the BTC/gold pair is again giving an early signal, and both directions are moving up at the same time, then the 12–18 month horizon looks extremely promising, with the potential for an even larger move in the future.
My comment: The current breakout is not just a technical signal, but confirmation of a shift in the global trend. Investors should prepare for volatility, but the strategic vector is obvious. Positions accumulated near support levels could prove extremely profitable in the medium term.