Matt Cole, head of investment firm Strive, has stated that the correction phase in the bitcoin market is over. Over the past seven days, the leading cryptocurrency has broken through key resistance levels simultaneously against both the US dollar and gold.
Cole, known for his macroeconomic forecasts, notes that the bitcoin-to-gold price ratio (BTC/gold) turned around earlier than the exchange rate against the dollar. In his view, this is an important signal heralding the start of a new, possibly the most powerful growth cycle in the asset's entire history.
Why the BTC/gold pair signals earlier
Analysis shows that the peak of the bitcoin-to-gold ratio occurred in December 2024. Meanwhile, the exchange rate against the dollar only reached its maximum in October 2025. The lows of these indicators also diverged in time: the BTC/gold pair found its bottom in February 2026, while the dollar price of bitcoin only did so in July, roughly five months later.
It is this sequence, according to Cole, that explains the pessimism of many investors. Bitcoin was updating dollar records but continued to lose ground to gold. Even a slight decline in the exchange rate was perceived painfully against the backdrop of the previous cycle, where the coin consistently lagged behind the precious metal.
Now the situation has changed dramatically. From last Wednesday through Friday, bitcoin rose by approximately 21%, briefly exceeding the $79,000 mark. This surge is linked to the US Treasury Department's decision to buy back long-term bonds, which added liquidity to the markets.
The key point is that bitcoin broke through its resistance levels simultaneously against both the dollar and gold. Moreover, the rise was sharp: over the month, the coin gained more than 22% against the USD and 6.6% against gold.
Cole, whose company is among the largest corporate holders of bitcoin with 20,246 BTC on its balance sheet, acknowledges the likelihood of a correction after such rapid growth. However, he is confident that any significant decline will be met with strong demand from buyers.
"I am absolutely confident that the bear market is over. If the BTC/gold pair has again given an early signal, and now both directions are moving up simultaneously, I have reason to expect a successful 12–18 months and much larger opportunities for growth in the future," he stated.
It is worth noting that Cole's forecast is backed not only by conviction but also by numbers. Strive's average purchase price is $94,345 per coin — approximately 22% above the asset's current value. Despite the recent rise, the company's unrealized loss is still estimated at around $350 million, making this forecast especially significant for its management.
My view: a synchronous breakout of levels against both fiat currency and gold is a rare and powerful technical signal that often precedes prolonged trends. However, investors should remember that high volatility after such surges is normal, and they should not give in to emotions during short-term pullbacks.