After a prolonged period of stagnation that lasted six months, the stablecoin market is showing the first clear signs of revival. My analysis of issuance dynamics shows that the supply of USDC has increased by approximately $2 billion in just one week. This is a sharp contrast to the previous phase, when volumes either remained flat or demonstrated a steady decline.
Such a move is not just a random fluctuation. I associate it with a comprehensive recovery of the crypto market, where three interconnected factors act as key drivers: growth in speculative activity, expansion of payment infrastructure, and acceleration of real-world asset tokenization processes. These are the areas currently shaping baseline demand for stablecoins, and USDC, judging by all appearances, is taking a leading position in this process.
The shift in transaction structure is particularly telling. According to my calculations, USDC's share of the adjusted volume of stablecoin transactions has grown from approximately 40% in 2025 to more than 60% in 2026. This is not merely a statistical artifact—it is direct evidence that the market is redistributing liquidity in favor of USDC, displacing competitors from key segments.
Against this backdrop, I maintain a positive outlook on the shares of issuer Circle. The Outperform rating and target price of $140 remain in effect, as the company's fundamental metrics improve in tandem with its growing market share. The current valuation does not fully reflect the potential for accelerated issuance that we are observing.
My conclusion: the resumption of USDC growth is an early but reliable indicator of the start of a new cycle. If issuance rates hold, we will see not just a recovery, but a structural shift toward USDC as the primary settlement instrument of the institutional crypto market. Investors should closely monitor stablecoin supply data in the coming weeks—this is a more accurate barometer of sentiment than bitcoin's volatility.