The scale of gas generation aimed at powering data centers in the United States is showing explosive growth. According to my analysis of Global Energy Monitor (GEM) data, the announced capacity of such power plants increased from 97 GW at the end of 2025 to more than 189 GW by mid-2026. This is a colossal leap, especially against the figure from early 2024, when it stood at just 4 GW. Thus, over two and a half years, the volume of projects has grown more than 40-fold, and in just the last six months it has nearly doubled.
This statistics includes announced projects, facilities at the pre-construction stage, and plants already under construction. However, it is important to understand that a significant portion of these announced capacities may never be realized.
Own generation as the new standard for data centers
The key driver of this boom has been the behind-the-meter model, which involves building power plants directly next to a data center. This approach allows bypassing overloaded power grids, connection to which can take years in some regions. "Increasingly, the expansion of gas generation in the United States is directly tied to the construction of data centers — one can no longer be discussed without the other," notes GEM analyst Jenny Martos.
As early as January, I recorded nearly 252 GW of all gas generation under development in the United States, of which more than a third (about 97 GW) was intended specifically for data centers. If this entire portfolio is realized, the installed capacity of gas generation in the country will grow by almost 50%, and capital expenditures will exceed $416 billion. New data confirms that it is the segment tied to data centers that continues to expand at the fastest pace.
Political context and the bet on gas
The shift to autonomous power supply coincided with a change in White House policy. In March, the largest market players — Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, and xAI — committed to independently building or attracting new energy sources for their data centers, as well as paying for the necessary grid infrastructure. The goal of the initiative is not to shift costs onto ordinary consumers. In July, the program was expanded to utility companies and state authorities, with more than 200 organizations joining.
Own generation allows companies to launch capacity faster, but the choice in favor of natural gas carries serious risks.
Reality versus ambitions: problems and limitations
GEM rightly cautions against viewing the 189 GW figure as a guaranteed forecast. The realization of projects depends on financing, obtaining permits, the attitude of local residents, and, critically, the availability of equipment. The shortage of gas turbines remains an acute problem: the order books of the largest manufacturers are already filled through 2030. For roughly two-thirds of gas projects in GEM's global database, the equipment manufacturer is not identified at all.
"There remains a lot of uncertainty here: financing, local resistance, moratoriums, turbine supply constraints," Martos emphasizes. Even if only part of the projects is realized, the consequences will be long-term, since gas plants are designed for decades of operation.
Geopolitical aspect: the United States and China choose different paths
The growth of gas generation allowed the United States to overtake China in total capacity of gas projects under development as early as the end of 2025 — 252 GW versus 153 GW for the PRC. This reflects a fundamental difference in approaches. Chinese data centers are more often located in regions with an abundance of solar and hydro energy, which is linked to state policy on developing renewable generation and reducing energy dependence.
In the United States, gas provides the ability to quickly obtain a stable source of capacity where grid connection is delayed. The price of this approach is additional emissions and the risk of creating excess infrastructure if the projected demand from AI does not materialize in full.
Texas as the epicenter of the boom
The trend is especially noticeable in Texas, where in January I counted 80.6 GW of gas capacity under development, of which about 40 GW is directly tied to data centers. In July, some developers used streamlined procedures to approve their own power plants. At that time, about 300 data centers were operating in the state, with roughly another 200 under development. A telling example is Amazon's purchase of a site in Pecos County for a campus with its own GW Ranch gas power plant of 7.65 GW, where 35 turbines are planned to be installed.
My comment: We are witnessing the formation of a new energy paradigm, where AI is becoming the main driver of demand for fossil fuels. However, the market is embedding an extremely optimistic scenario of computing capacity growth into its forecasts. If the pace of AI adoption slows down or a technological breakthrough in chip efficiency occurs, we risk ending up with huge "ghost" assets — unfinished or underutilized gas power plants that will become a burden on the economy and the environment for decades to come.