The stablecoin market is sending its first clear signals of a phase shift. The supply of USDC increased by approximately $2 billion over the past week — this is the first significant inflow in the last six months, which passed in a mode of stagnation or even capital outflows. In my analysis, this is not a random fluctuation, but a marker of the beginning of a new accumulation cycle, fueled by several fundamental drivers at once.
Key growth drivers
First of all, the overall revival in the crypto market creates increased demand for liquid instruments for settlements and hedging. USDC, as the most regulated and transparent stablecoin, benefits from this above all. In addition, I see growing momentum in two adjacent areas: the expansion of blockchain-based payment infrastructure and the acceleration of tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). It is these segments that are generating a steady inflow of institutional capital that does not depend on short-term bitcoin volatility.
Notably, the share of USDC in the adjusted volume of stablecoin transactions, by my estimates, has already grown from about 40% in 2025 to more than 60% in 2026. This indicates a structural shift in market participants' preferences: they are choosing not just a stable coin, but a reliable settlement instrument with a clear legal status.
Assessment and outlook
In light of these factors, I maintain a positive view on the shares of issuer Circle, reaffirming an Outperform rating with a target price of $140. The current dynamics of USDC supply only strengthens my confidence that the company is on the verge of large-scale revenue growth.
My conclusion: we are witnessing not just a recovery after a pause, but the formation of a new upward trajectory for USDC. Investors should closely monitor the pace of issuance in the coming weeks — if the inflow continues, it will confirm a sustainable trend rather than a one-off spike.