The Russian stock market is going through a difficult period, and the mood of trading participants is far from optimistic. Olga Shishlyannikova, Director of the Department of Investment Financial Intermediaries at the Bank of Russia, gave a detailed assessment of the current situation in a recent interview, dispelling the myth that the exchange has turned into something akin to a casino.
Investor pessimism has quite concrete grounds. At the top of the list is the extremely tense geopolitical situation, which continues to put pressure on quotes. The second significant factor is the persistent inflationary risks in the economy. However, beyond macroeconomics, technical aspects also affect the dynamics, such as dividend gaps, when a security becomes cheaper after the ex-dividend date by the amount of the payout.
Special attention deserves the effect of forced liquidation of positions held by retail investors using leverage. When prices fall, such positions can be closed automatically, which temporarily intensifies the decline. This is a technical but extremely painful factor for the market.
Economic reasons also contribute. The Russian market is closed to foreign investment, which forces companies to increase debt, but not all of them manage to service it. Some issuers default, although these are companies far from the top tier. The realization of a series of "black swans" in recent years — from asset freezes to sanctions — was indeed difficult to predict, but this does not make the market chaotic.
What makes it different from roulette
Contrary to popular belief, Shishlyannikova emphasizes: a casino is a series of random events without cause-and-effect relationships. The exchange, however, follows patterns that can be analyzed and calculated. The higher the promised return, the higher the risks for the investor. Those who carefully monitor the economy and business are quite capable of forecasting how events will unfold. A thorough risk assessment helps minimize losses during periods of high volatility.
AI will not replace humans
The fashion for artificial intelligence has reached finance, but talk of completely displacing humans is premature. Algorithmic trading once promised a revolution too, yet the exchange still cannot do without people. Shishlyannikova acknowledges that the future belongs to AI, and it will occupy a prominent place in the financial sector. The question is whether market participants are ready to fully trust the technology. Citing an example of a voice assistant that failed to handle a simple everyday task, she illustrates that AI models too often make mistakes and produce fabricated answers, so people are still wary of entrusting them with money.
About two-thirds of financial organizations already use or plan to implement AI, but the results have to be double-checked manually. The Bank of Russia has developed a code of ethics for market participants to ensure the safe use of technology and data protection. AI increases productivity by handling routine operations, but it does not yet free humans from intellectual work.
My take: It is telling that the regulator is betting on fundamental analysis in conditions where the market is reeling from external shocks. For the crypto industry, this is a good lesson: even in the most turbulent conditions, those who build strategies on data rather than emotions survive. AI will become a powerful tool for analysts, but the final decision will always remain with humans — especially when it comes to money.