The Russian stock market is going through tough times, and investor sentiment is far from optimistic. Olga Shishlyannikova, Director of the Department of Investment Financial Intermediaries at the Bank of Russia, in her recent assessment, dispelled the myth that the exchange has turned into a casino, but at the same time honestly outlined the pressure factors that are making market participants nervous.
Why investor sentiment is far from optimism
In my deep conviction, the current situation is a classic example of overlapping geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks. Shishlyannikova rightly points to two key triggers. First, the extremely tense geopolitical environment, which remains the main source of uncertainty. Second, significant inflationary risks, which have not gone away from the Russian economy, continue to weigh on quotes.
However, purely technical factors should not be discounted either. This refers to the dividend gap, when a security becomes cheaper after the cut-off date by the amount of payments to shareholders. A more alarming signal is the forced closure of positions held by retail investors using leverage. When prices fall, such positions are automatically closed, which only intensifies the short-term decline, creating a snowball effect.
Special attention deserves the economic reasons for the depreciation of securities. The Russian market is effectively closed to foreign investment, and many companies are forced to increase debt but fail to service it. Some issuers default, although this concerns not the first tier, but second- and third-tier companies.
How the Russian market differs from roulette
In recent years, a series of unlikely risks have materialized in the market, giving reason to compare the platform to a gambling establishment. However, the Central Bank representative disagreed with this interpretation. She acknowledged that "black swans" did indeed occur — the blocking of client assets in 2022 and the imposition of sanctions against financial market participants were difficult to predict. But otherwise, many events were natural.
The key difference, in my view, is that a casino is a series of random events without cause-and-effect relationships. The market, on the other hand, operates on different principles and follows patterns that are amenable to analysis and calculation. The higher the promised return, the higher the risks for the investor — this is an axiom, not a game of roulette.
Will AI replace the human investor
The fashion for artificial intelligence has reached finance, but it is premature to talk about the complete displacement of humans. Once upon a time, algorithmic trading with good results already created the illusion that the exchange could do without people, but that did not happen. Shishlyannikova rightly notes that the future belongs to AI, and it will occupy a prominent place in the financial sector. However, the question is whether market participants are ready to fully trust the technology.
The example of the assistant "Alisa" is telling — it could not suggest how to set the clock on a new microwave, and I had to figure it out myself. AI models make mistakes too often and produce fabricated answers even in simple everyday tasks, so many people are wary of entrusting them with money. About two-thirds of financial organizations already use AI or plan to implement it, but those who deploy the technology admit: the results still have to be double-checked manually.
The Bank of Russia has developed a code of ethics for market participants that ensures the safe use of AI, data protection, and improved service quality. AI significantly boosts productivity by handling routine operations, but so far it does not relieve humans of intellectual work.
My conclusion: the Russian market is not a casino, but it is not a safe haven either. Careful risk assessment and fundamental analysis remain the only reliable tools in a period of high volatility. AI will become an assistant, but not a replacement for the analyst — at least until it learns to distinguish real data from hallucinations.