The past week was historic for Bitcoin: the price of the leading cryptocurrency rose by 23.58%, its best performance since 2023. In dollar terms, the gain was $14,833—the largest weekly jump in the history of digital assets.
At the time of the analysis, BTC is trading around $79,300, showing a daily increase of 2.25%. The positive momentum allowed quotes to break above the descending trend line that had held the market since the all-time high of October 2025.
Structural breakout after ten months of correction
The price bounced off the $63,000–66,000 support zone, then broke through key resistance levels, including the descending line from the $126,195 peak. The $74,000–76,000 range, which previously acted as an obstacle, has now consolidated as reliable support.
Trading volume has also grown significantly, although it has not reached June's highs. The BBWP indicator has broken out of its extreme low and is approaching peak volatility levels, which historically precedes strong moves. However, it is important to emphasize: such compressions indicate intensity, but not the direction of future momentum.
On the daily chart, an important signal has formed: Bitcoin has recovered above the 200-day moving average ($69,000), which previously halted attempts to rise. The daily RSI has reached 82—a high not seen since 2024. Notably, in the two previous cases, such overheated readings did not trigger a reversal but merely "stretched" the upward momentum.
The nearest resistance is located at the local peak of $82,215, followed by the $85,000–87,000 zone. At the same time, BTC is still trading approximately 38% below its all-time price high.
Derivatives: bullish signal or trap?
Derivatives data adds a note of skepticism to the overall picture. On August 19, short positions worth about $2.7 billion were liquidated—on the same day, the U.S. Treasury announced a doubling of its buyback of long-term government bonds.
The funding rate on perpetual contracts reached its highest level since 2026 during the short squeeze. This is strikingly different from the April rally to $79,000, when the rise was accompanied by persistently negative rates—traders paid to hold short positions. Now they are paying for longs, which indicates not a reduction in tension, but a shift in its direction.
Open interest (OI) has risen to nearly $57.5 billion, compared with $46.5 billion before the start of the bullish momentum. Nevertheless, this is still below the January high ($65.3 billion) and the May peak ($64 billion). In both cases in 2024, reaching these levels preceded a sharp drop in price.
As long as the weekly close holds above $74,000, the breakout structure remains intact. Losing this level would shift the focus back to the $63,000–66,000 range.
My expert view: the current rise looks fundamentally justified, but the overheating of derivatives serves as a reminder of risks. I advise traders not to chase the price on emotion, but to wait for confirmation on daily volumes. The $82,000 level will be the litmus test for determining the sustainability of the trend.