The past week was triumphant for Bitcoin: the price rose by 23.58% — the best weekly result since 2023. In absolute terms, the gain was $14,833, marking the largest weekly move in dollar terms in the history of the crypto market. At the time of analysis, BTC is trading around $79,300, having added another 2.25% over the last 24 hours.
This momentum signals a decisive exit from a prolonged correction. Over the week, the price bounced off the $63,000–66,000 support zone, broke through the descending resistance stretching from October's all-time high, and settled above the $74,000–76,000 range, which now acts as new support. The weekly close occurred above the key trendline, technically confirming a shift in market structure.
Technical Signals: Bullish Momentum Gaining Strength
An important signal has formed on the daily chart: Bitcoin has recovered above the 200-day moving average around $69,000. This level previously halted all upward attempts within the downtrend since October. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 82 — the highest since 2024. However, historically, such overbought levels have not always led to reversals: in the two previous cases, they merely "stretched" the momentum rather than extinguishing it.
The nearest resistance is now at the local peak of $82,215, followed by the $85,000–87,000 zone. Meanwhile, BTC is still trading roughly 38% below its all-time high, leaving significant room for further movement.
Derivatives: Skew Toward Longs
Derivatives data adds nuance to the bullish picture. On August 19, short positions worth approximately $2.7 billion were liquidated — the same day the U.S. Treasury announced a doubling of its long-term bond buybacks. The funding rate on perpetual contracts hit its highest value for 2026 during the short squeeze. Unlike the April rally to $79,000, which was accompanied by persistently negative rates, traders are now paying for long positions. This means the balance of power in the market has not diminished but has shifted direction.
Open interest (OI) has risen to nearly $57.5 billion from $46.5 billion before the start of the bullish impulse. However, it is still below January's peak ($65.3 billion) and May's local high ($64 billion). In both cases in 2024, reaching these levels was followed by a sharp price drop. Leveraged funds have returned to the market but have not yet reached their previous depth — this leaves room for maneuver.
Forecast and Key Levels
As long as the weekly close holds above $74,000, the breakout structure remains intact. Losing this level would shift focus back to the $63,000–66,000 range. However, if OI approaches $64 billion again, the market could become overloaded with positions, increasing the risk of a correction.
My view: the current momentum looks solid, but I would not rule out short-term consolidation before an assault on the $82,000–87,000 zone. The key indicator is OI behavior: if it continues to rise without aggressive price growth, that would signal accumulation rather than a reversal.