Over the past week, the leading cryptocurrency demonstrated an impressive 23.58% gain, its best result since 2023. In dollar terms, the increase amounted to $14,833 — an absolute record for weekly performance in the entire history of digital asset market observation.
At the time of the analysis, BTC is trading around $79,300, up 2.25% over the past day. The weekly close marked a breakout of the descending trendline that had dominated the chart since the formation of the all-time high in October 2025.
Structural shift after ten months of correction
The price confidently bounced off the $63,000–66,000 support zone, then broke through resistance formed from the $126,195 peak. The key event was the breakout of the $74,000–76,000 range, which has now transformed into solid support. Trading volumes have increased but have not yet reached June highs, leaving room for further momentum development.
The BBWP indicator has emerged from an extreme low and is approaching peak volatility levels. Historically, such compressions precede strong moves, but their direction remains uncertain — the market could either continue the rally or correct.
Technical signals and levels
On the daily chart, BTC has recovered above the 200-day moving average around $69,000. This level had previously halted growth attempts within the downtrend since October last year. The daily RSI has reached 82 — a high not seen since 2024. In the two previous cases, overbought conditions did not lead to a reversal but merely extended the momentum.
The nearest resistance is located at the local peak of $82,215, followed by the $85,000–87,000 zone. Meanwhile, BTC is still trading approximately 38% below its all-time high.
Derivatives: bullish signal with caveats
Futures market data adds nuances to the optimistic picture. On August 19, short positions worth about $2.7 billion were liquidated — on the same day, the U.S. Treasury announced a doubling of its long-term bond buyback. The funding rate on perpetual contracts reached its highest value in 2026 during the short squeeze.
Notably, the April rally of BTC to $79,000 was accompanied by persistently negative rates, when traders paid to hold short positions. Now the situation is mirrored: longs are being paid for. This means the balance of power has not weakened but merely shifted direction.
Open interest (OI) on exchanges has risen to nearly $57.5 billion, compared to $46.5 billion before the start of the bullish impulse. However, this value is still below the January peak ($65.3 billion) and the May local high ($64 billion). Both times after reaching these levels in 2024, a sharp price drop followed.
Thus, borrowed funds have returned to the market but have not yet reached previous depths. If OI approaches $64 billion again, the market could become overloaded with positions.
Forecast and key scenarios
As long as the weekly close holds above $74,000, the breakout structure remains intact. If this level is lost, the focus will shift back to the $63,000–66,000 range.
My assessment: the current momentum is technically healthy, but derivative overheating and incomplete OI recovery create correction risks. The market needs consolidation above $80,000 to confirm the sustainability of the new uptrend. Watch the price reaction in the $82,000–87,000 zone — this is where it will be decided whether this surge becomes the start of a full-fledged bull cycle or merely a local bounce within a long-term correction.