Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated an impressive weekly gain of 23.58%, its best result since 2023. During the reporting period, the price rose by $14,833 — the largest weekly gain in dollar terms in the cryptocurrency's history.
At the time of the analysis, BTC is trading around $79,300, up 2.25% over the past day. The week ended with a convincing breakout of the descending trend line that had constrained price movement since the all-time high of October 2025.
End of the 10-month correction
The price structure shows that the price bounced off the $63,000–66,000 support zone, then successively broke through resistance at the all-time high of $126,195 and the $74,000–76,000 range, which now acts as support. Trading volume has also increased, although it has not yet reached June highs. The BBWP indicator has emerged from an extreme low and is approaching maximum volatility, which historically precedes strong moves, but the direction remains uncertain.
An important signal is also forming on the daily chart: BTC has recovered above the 200-day moving average around $69,000. This level previously halted upward attempts within the downtrend since October of last year. The daily RSI has reached 82 — a high not seen since 2024. Notably, in the last two cases, this overbought level did not trigger a reversal but merely "stretched" the momentum.
The nearest resistance is at the local peak of $82,215, followed by the $85,000–87,000 zone. At the same time, BTC is still trading approximately 38% below its all-time price high.
Derivatives: funding rates at highs, OI lags behind
Derivatives data casts doubt on the bullish scenario. On August 19, short positions worth approximately $2.7 billion were liquidated — on the same day, the U.S. Treasury announced a doubling of its long-term bond buybacks. The aggregate funding rate on perpetual contracts reached its highest value in 2026 during the short squeeze. In contrast, Bitcoin's rise to $79,000 in April was accompanied by persistently negative funding rates.
At that time, traders were paying to hold short positions. Now they are paying for longs — this means the balance of power in the market has not decreased but has shifted direction. Open interest (OI) paints a different picture: according to CoinGlass, OI on exchanges has grown to nearly $57.5 billion compared to $46.5 billion before the start of the bullish impulse. However, this value is still below the January high ($65.3 billion) and the May local peak ($64 billion). In both cases in 2024, reaching these levels was followed by a sharp decline in prices.
Thus, borrowed funds have already returned to the market, but have not yet reached their previous depth. If open interest approaches $64 billion again, the market could become overloaded with positions.
Key levels for further movement
As long as BTC's weekly close remains above the $74,000 mark, the breakout structure will hold. However, if this level is lost, the focus will shift back to the $63,000–66,000 range.
My view: the current momentum looks convincing, but the overbought RSI and the return of positive funding rates point to possible consolidation before the next push. Watch price behavior near $82,000 — this is where it will be decided whether the uptrend continues or we see another correction.