The past week was historic for bitcoin: the leading cryptocurrency posted its strongest weekly gain since 2023, rising 23.58%. In absolute terms, that is a gain of $14,833 — the largest weekly increase in dollar terms in the entire history of digital assets. At the time of analysis, BTC is trading around $79,300, up 2.25% over the past 24 hours.
From a technical standpoint, this momentum marked the end of a prolonged 10-month downtrend phase. The price bounced off the $63,000–66,000 support zone, broke through the descending trendline stretching from the October 2025 all-time high ($126,195), and cleared resistance in the $74,000–76,000 range, which now serves as support.
Bullish signals and resistance levels
An important signal has formed on the daily chart: BTC has recovered above the 200-day moving average in the $69,000 area. This level had previously halted all attempts to rally within the downtrend. The RSI indicator has reached 82 — the highest level since 2024. However, in the two previous instances, such overbought conditions did not lead to a reversal but merely "stretched" the momentum, allowing the price to continue moving.
The nearest resistance is at the local peak of $82,215, followed by the $85,000–87,000 zone. At the same time, BTC is still trading roughly 38% below its all-time high, leaving room for further upside.
Derivatives: euphoria is present, but not without nuances
Derivatives data adds a note of caution to the bullish scenario. On August 19, short positions worth approximately $2.7 billion were liquidated — on the same day, the U.S. Treasury announced it would double its buyback of long-term government bonds. The funding rate on perpetual contracts reached its highest level since 2026, indicating a dominance of long positions. However, unlike the April rally toward $79,000, which was accompanied by persistently negative rates, traders are now paying to hold longs — the balance of power in the market has not weakened but has shifted direction.
Open interest (OI) has risen to nearly $57.5 billion from $46.5 billion before the start of the bullish impulse. Nevertheless, this is still below the January peak ($65.3 billion) and the May local high ($64 billion). In both cases in 2024, reaching these levels was followed by a sharp decline in price.
As long as the weekly close remains above the $74,000 mark, the breakout structure holds. If this level is lost, the focus will shift back to the $63,000–66,000 range.
My view: The current momentum is impressive, but I would not rush into euphoric forecasts. The return of borrowed funds to the market is a positive sign, yet the incomplete recovery of OI to previous peaks suggests that institutional appetite has not yet reached the levels that previously preceded corrections. The key test is holding $74,000 on the weekly close. If that succeeds, the $85,000–87,000 target becomes quite realistic.