The past week was triumphant for Bitcoin: the price of the leading cryptocurrency surged by 23.58%, marking its best weekly performance since 2023. In absolute terms, the asset gained $14,833—a record weekly increase in dollar terms in the history of digital assets. At the time of analysis, BTC is trading near $79,300, adding another 2.25% over the past day.
Technical Picture: Trend Reversal or False Breakout?
The price action structure is impressive. Bitcoin bounced off the $63,000–66,000 support zone, broke through the descending trendline extending from the October 2025 all-time high, and surpassed resistance in the $74,000–76,000 range, which now serves as support. Importantly, the price has recovered above the 200-day moving average around $69,000—this level had previously halted all upward attempts within the downtrend.
The daily RSI has reached 82—its highest level since 2024. However, in the two previous instances, such overbought conditions did not lead to a reversal but merely "stretched" the momentum, allowing the price to consolidate before continuing higher. Trading volumes have increased but have not yet reached the June peak, leaving room for further expansion.
Derivatives: A Bullish Signal with Caveats
Derivatives data adds nuance. On August 19, short positions worth approximately $2.7 billion were liquidated—on the same day, the U.S. Treasury announced a doubling of its long-term bond buybacks. The funding rate on perpetual contracts reached its highest value in 2026 during the short squeeze. Unlike the April rally to $79,000, which was accompanied by persistently negative rates (traders paid to hold shorts), longs are now being paid for—the balance of power in the market has not weakened but has shifted direction.
Open interest (OI) on exchanges has risen from $46.5 billion to nearly $57.5 billion, but it remains below the January peak ($65.3 billion) and the May local high ($64 billion). In 2024, reaching these levels was followed by a sharp price decline. This means borrowed funds have returned to the market but have not yet reached their previous depth—and if OI approaches $64 billion again, the market could become overloaded with positions.
Forecast and Key Levels
The nearest resistance is the local peak at $82,215, followed by the $85,000–87,000 zone. As long as the weekly close holds above $74,000, the breakout structure remains intact. However, losing this level would shift focus back to the $63,000–66,000 range.
My assessment: the current move is a classic impulse following a prolonged consolidation, backed by a macroeconomic catalyst. But caution is warranted: rising funding rates and incomplete OI recovery suggest the market is not yet fully "heated up." Watch the reaction at $82,000—this is where it will be decided whether the bullish scenario continues or we see a correction toward support.