The market of the first cryptocurrency is showing a curious paradox: the price is confidently recovering, while the fear and greed index has pulled back to 65 points after a surge to 74 the day before. It would seem to be a classic picture of bullish sentiment. However, behind the facade of euphoria lies an anomaly that deserves close attention: open interest (OI) in bitcoin futures has fallen to nearly a five-month low, despite an impressive weekly gain of 22.4%.
At the time of analysis, BTC is trading around $79,000, slightly below the recent high of $80,000. The key signal here is not the price itself, but the structure of derivatives. Since August 14, OI has declined from 645,760 BTC to 587,584 BTC. For comparison: over the same period, the price has risen from roughly $62,000. Under normal conditions, such a rally is accompanied by aggressive accumulation of leveraged longs, but now we are seeing the opposite process. The initial momentum was driven mainly by short covering, while funding rates on perpetual contracts remain below 10% annually — this indicates a moderate bullish sentiment without overheating.
Spot demand takes the initiative
CryptoQuant data confirms: visible spot demand is growing at the fastest pace since late December, and the simultaneous increase in activity on both spot and futures is being recorded for the first time since early October 2025. The Bull Score indicator jumped from 30 to 80 over the week — the highest since October 6 of last year. Eight of the ten key on-chain and market metrics are in the bullish zone. This suggests that the recovery is fundamental in nature, rather than being fueled solely by leverage.
Particular attention deserves the collateral structure: OI in futures with cryptocurrency collateral has fallen to an all-time low of 52,000 BTC (only 11% of the market). This is a clear sign that participants prefer less risky instruments. American spot bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital: on August 25, inflows amounted to $314.3 million, with $284.4 million of that going to BlackRock's IBIT. Already the seventh consecutive positive session — institutional money is clearly bypassing derivatives.
XRP — a risk zone
Against the backdrop of restraint in bitcoin, altcoins are showing a different picture. XRP, after a weekly gain of 42%, has faced a sharp increase in leverage: the estimated ratio on Binance jumped to 0.21 — the highest since January. Futures trading volume reached $6.4 billion versus a modest $1.2 billion on spot. The ratio of long to short positions on the exchange is roughly two to one, and among large traders — three to one. This is a classic recipe for a cascade of liquidations: in a downward correction, forced closing of longs could amplify the decline. XRP has already fallen 5% to $1.44, and the risks of further downside remain high.
My conclusion: the current bitcoin rally is a "healthy" advance, backed by real spot demand rather than speculative pumping. But precisely for this reason, corrections in such a scenario could be deeper and more prolonged — the market lacks a "cushion" of liquid positions to soften the blows. Investors should closely monitor the dynamics of OI: if it begins to rise sharply against a stable price, that will be a signal of the return of risk appetite, and with it, volatility.