The market is showing a rare picture: bitcoin has gained 22.4% over the week, but open interest (OI) in futures on the first cryptocurrency has collapsed to lows not seen in almost five months. This divergence is a key signal indicating a qualitative change in the structure of the current rally.
The fear and greed index on August 26 pulled back to 65 points after jumping to 74 the day before. However, unlike typical bullish surges, this growth is not backed by massive accumulation of leveraged long positions. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $79,000, slightly short of the recent local high of $80,000.
The paradox of declining open interest
According to my data, OI in bitcoin futures has dropped from 645,760 BTC on August 14 to 587,584 BTC. Over the same period, the price rose from roughly $62,000 to $80,000. Usually, such a move triggers an influx of new capital into derivatives, but now we are seeing the opposite process. A significant portion of the momentum came from short covering rather than the opening of new longs.
Funding rates on perpetual futures remain below 10% annually, indicating a moderate bullish sentiment without overheating. The collateral structure deserves special attention: OI in futures with cryptocurrency collateral has fallen to approximately 52,000 BTC — an all-time low, accounting for only 11% of the market. This suggests that traders prefer more stable forms of collateral, avoiding excessive risk.
Spot demand and ETFs: the foundation of the rally
The Bull Score indicator from CryptoQuant jumped from 30 to 80 over the week, reaching its highest level since October 6, 2025. Eight out of ten key on-chain and market indicators are in the bullish zone. Visible spot demand is growing at the fastest pace since late December, and a simultaneous increase in demand on both the spot and futures markets has been recorded for the first time since early October.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital: on August 25, funds received $314.3 million, with $284.4 million of that going to BlackRock's IBIT. This is the seventh consecutive positive session, confirming institutional interest as the main driver.
XRP: the flip side of the coin
XRP provides a contrast to bitcoin. After a weekly gain of 42%, the estimated leverage ratio on Binance surged to 0.21 — the highest since January. XRP futures trading volume reached $6.4 billion versus $1.2 billion on the spot market, and the long-to-short ratio on Binance is approximately 2:1, while among large traders it is 3:1. On August 26, XRP corrected 5% to $1.44, and with such a skew toward longs, further declines risk triggering a cascade of liquidations.
My conclusion: The current bitcoin rally looks significantly healthier than previous ones — it is built on real spot demand and institutional inflows rather than leveraged speculation. However, history teaches that the sustainability of such growth will be tested at the first serious pullback. If OI continues to decline, it will only strengthen the position for the next impulse; if it starts to rise sharply, one should prepare for increased volatility.