The market of the first cryptocurrency demonstrates a discipline rare for bullish sentiment. On August 26, the Fear and Greed Index pulled back to 65 points after a surge to 74 the day before, indicating sustained optimism but without euphoria. However, the key signal lies deeper: open interest (OI) in bitcoin futures has dropped to nearly a five-month low, despite an impressive 22.4% weekly price increase.
At the time of analysis, BTC is trading near $79,000, slightly short of the psychologically important level of $80,000 reached during the recent rally. This dynamic suggests that the current momentum is driven not so much by the accumulation of leveraged long positions, but by short covering and real spot demand.
Futures structure: caution instead of greed
Derivatives data paints an interesting picture. Since August 14, OI in bitcoin equivalent has declined from 645,760 BTC to 587,584 BTC — the lowest level in the past five months. Meanwhile, the price over the same period has surged from $62,000 to $80,000. Classically, such a move is accompanied by an influx of new leveraged positions, but now we are seeing the opposite process.
Funding rates on perpetual contracts remain below 10% annually, indicating a moderate bullish tilt but without aggressive frenzy. Additionally, OI in futures with cryptocurrency collateral has fallen to an all-time low of 52,000 BTC, accounting for only 11% of the market. This is a clear sign that participants prefer not to take risks, but rather to lock in profits or hedge positions with cash assets.
Spot demand and ETFs as a driver
My analysis shows that the spot market is the primary catalyst for the growth. Visible demand is increasing at the fastest pace since late December, and the simultaneous strengthening on both spot and futures is being recorded for the first time since early October 2025. The Bull Score indicator from CryptoQuant jumped from 30 to 80 over the week — the highest since October 6 last year, with eight out of ten key on-chain and market metrics in the bullish zone.
Flows into US spot bitcoin ETFs serve as confirmation: on August 25, funds attracted $314.3 million, marking the seventh consecutive positive session. IBIT from BlackRock accounted for $284.4 million — institutional money is clearly preferring regulated instruments over risky derivatives.
Contrast with altcoins: the XRP lesson
Unlike bitcoin, some altcoins are already showing dangerous signs of overheating. XRP, up 42% over the week, has faced a sharp increase in leverage. The estimated ratio on Binance has risen to 0.21 — the highest since January, and futures trading volume ($6.4 billion) is five times higher than spot ($1.2 billion). The long-to-short ratio on the exchange reaches two to one, and among large traders — almost three to one.
On August 26, XRP corrected 5% to $1.44, and this is just the beginning. With such an imbalance, further decline will trigger a cascade of forced liquidations, amplifying the correction. This is a classic example of how excessive leverage turns healthy growth into a fragile bubble.
My conclusion: The current bitcoin rally looks significantly healthier than many expect. The absence of overheating in the futures market and steady ETF inflows create a solid foundation for further movement. However, if the price consolidates above $80,000 and mass long opening begins, the situation could change quickly. Keep an eye on funding rates — they are the best indicator of a sentiment shift.