My analysis of the market structure confirms: bitcoin is entering a phase of accelerated recovery, and the target levels I am considering look ambitious but achievable. This refers to a return to the $125,000 mark by the end of 2026, followed by an update of the historical high around $150,000 by mid-2027. On the horizon of the next cycle, in 2029, I anticipate peak values near $300,000.
This scenario is based not on emotions but on two key fundamental pillars. First, there is the established four-year cycle, which historically determines the phases of accumulation, growth, and correction. Second, my valuation model ties the asset's fair value to the marginal costs of mining—this indicator has repeatedly proven its reliability over long distances.
Institutional demand and macroeconomic context
However, cyclicality is only part of the equation. I see a qualitative change in the structure of demand. Capital inflows through spot ETFs are becoming a systemic rather than speculative factor, and corporate treasuries are increasingly considering the first cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve asset. This creates a hard lower limit for the price during any drawdown.
Additional pressure on fiat systems is exerted by the growing debt of states. In conditions where central banks are forced to balance between inflation and recession, scarce assets with limited issuance—and bitcoin is exactly that—gain a natural advantage as a tool for capital preservation.
My conclusion: the forecast of $125,000 by the end of 2026 looks conservative, given the accelerating institutionalization of the market. However, I would not rule out intermediate corrections of 20-30%—they will be a healthy part of the bull trend, not its refutation. The key risk is tightening regulation in major jurisdictions, but with the current adoption dynamics, it is outweighed by growing demand.