Over the past few days, Bitcoin has made an impressive surge that caught most market participants off guard. After a prolonged consolidation, the leading cryptocurrency showed steady growth for three consecutive days, breaking through key levels. The coin surpassed the $70,000 mark, triggering the liquidation of short positions worth around $3 billion, and ultimately reached $80,000. The total gain over several days exceeded 13%.
Contrary to the widespread belief that rumors or technical factors were the driving force, I see a clear macroeconomic reason. This concerns the U.S. Treasury Department's decision to double the volume of long-term Treasury bond buybacks. This move, carried out through the TGA (Treasury General Account), which currently holds about $950 billion, fundamentally changes the balance of power in financial markets.
Why bond buybacks accelerate the crypto market
The mechanics are simple and logical. The rise in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.7% and 30-year yields above 5.2% made borrowing too expensive for businesses and consumers. By increasing buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, the Treasury began artificially lowering yields. After the announcement of TGA usage, 10-year yields fell from ~4.74% to ~4.71%, and 30-year yields from ~5.28% to ~5.24%.
This is critically important for risk assets. When bond yields fall, investors are forced to seek alternatives, and Bitcoin becomes a natural beneficiary. Money from the TGA, returning through the Fed to bondholders, increases liquidity in the system. Although this process only vaguely resembles QE, the effect on the market is comparable. Cryptocurrency receives this impulse last, mainly through exchange-traded funds.
Statistics confirm: from August 17 to 21, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recorded net inflows of about $1.9 billion, with all five trading days being positive. Moving from $79,000 to $90,000 would require $3-5 billion of sustained demand, and storming $100,000 would need about $5 billion. The current weekly inflow already constitutes a significant portion of these amounts.
Key levels and scenarios
Bitcoin holds about 59% of the market capitalization, setting the tone for all altcoins. The main support zone is now $73,000-75,000, where recent buyers' positions are concentrated. As long as the price stays above this, panic selling should not be expected. My working range for the week is $75,000-81,000. The zone around $80,000 is a historical "price of disagreement" with low volumes, so sharp movements are possible. The local target is $83,000-85,000, but an instant surge to $100,000 (+27%) is unlikely without a new powerful catalyst.
For Ethereum, the logic is similar: the coin rose 29% over the week, trading around $2,500. Resistance is at $2,600-2,700, but the more interesting zone is $2,200 for a pullback, where one could look for a local long with targets of $2,600-2,700. Weekly inflows into Ethereum ETFs totaled $697 million, but their sustainability remains questionable.
This week, the market will watch the PCE index on August 26, Nvidia's report (expectations around $92 billion in revenue), and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday. Any hint of a softening in rhetoric could trigger a new wave of growth.
My verdict: the current momentum has a real macroeconomic foundation, not just a speculative one. However, without a close above $85,000, it is too early to talk about a full-fledged bull trend. I recommend caution when buying at current levels and waiting for confirmation from volumes.