Over the past few days, Bitcoin has made an impressive surge, breaking through the $70,000 mark and racing toward $80,000. The rise exceeded 13% in just a few days, triggering around $3 billion in short position liquidations. However, behind this move lies not market hype, but a specific macroeconomic decision that many investors have overlooked.

The key catalyst was the U.S. Treasury Department's announcement of its intention to double the volume of long-term Treasury bond buybacks. This involves using funds from the Treasury General Account (TGA), which currently holds approximately $950 billion. This decision is not merely a technical adjustment, but a signal of a shift in the direction of monetary policy.

The mechanism of market impact

The mechanism is simple yet powerful. Rising yields on 10-year bonds to 4.7% and 30-year bonds above 5.2% put pressure on all risk assets. High rates made loans more expensive and stocks and cryptocurrencies less attractive. By increasing buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, the Treasury began actively purchasing long-term securities, leading to a decline in their yields (10-year fell from ~4.74% to ~4.71%, 30-year from ~5.28% to ~5.24%).

The bond market is valued at approximately $32 trillion, so even such a seemingly minor move noticeably changes the cost of money in the economy. In effect, this is a return of liquidity from the Fed to bondholders—banks, funds, and investors. In terms of its impact on yields, this step resembles QE, but with a different implementation mechanism. The crypto market receives this liquidity last, mainly through exchange-traded funds, but the effect proves explosive.

ETF inflows and key levels

Data confirms: from August 17 to 21, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recorded about $1.9 billion in net inflows, with all five trading days positive. Moving from $79,000 to $90,000 requires roughly $3-5 billion in sustained demand, and about $5 billion for an assault on $100,000. Weekly inflows already account for a significant portion of these amounts.

Bitcoin, which holds about 59% of market capitalization, sets the direction for all altcoins. The key support zone right now is $73,000-75,000, where many new investors opened positions. As long as the price holds above this, panic selling is unlikely. However, a break below $73,000 would create serious pressure, and the $70,000 level would become a critical threshold.

The working range for the week is $75,000-81,000. The zone around $80,000 is historically a "price imbalance zone," where the market rarely lingers for long. The local high of the move is $83,000-85,000. A direct surge to $100,000 (+27% from current levels) is unlikely without new liquidity inflows or a catalyst for mass liquidations.

For Ethereum, the logic is similar: the coin rose 29% over the week and is trading near $2,500. Resistance is at $2,600-2,700, but the more interesting zone is $2,200 for a 12% pullback. Inflows into Ethereum ETFs totaled about $697 million, though its sustainability remains in question.

Week calendar

Key events: August 26 — PCE index (the Fed's primary inflation indicator) and Nvidia's earnings report (revenue expectations around $92 billion); August 27 — Marvell Technology report; August 27-29 — Jackson Hole symposium; August 28 — speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

My analysis: The Treasury's decision is not a one-off trigger, but the beginning of a systemic shift. If the TGA continues to be actively used, we will see a steady influx of liquidity that could move Bitcoin into a new price corridor. However, do not forget: the bond market is a litmus test. Any disruption in this mechanism will instantly reflect on cryptocurrencies. Watch the yields—they are now more important than any technical indicators.