Last week, the leading cryptocurrency made an impressive surge, breaking through psychologically important levels. Over several days, the asset rose by more than 13%, triggering the liquidation of short positions worth around $3 billion. At one point, the price reached above $80,000, returning to historical highs. However, the key question currently on the market's mind is what exactly triggered this movement and how sustainable the momentum will prove to be.

Macroeconomic trigger: an unexpected turn by the US Treasury

Contrary to the widespread view of a purely technical rebound, the main catalyst was a decision by the US Department of the Treasury. This concerns plans to double the volume of long-term Treasury bond buybacks using funds from the Treasury General Account (TGA) at the Fed. Currently, about $950 billion has accumulated in this account, and changing the mechanics of its use could seriously impact global liquidity.

The essence of the mechanism is simple: active bond buybacks lower their yields. Over recent days, the yield on 10-year notes has dropped from ~4.74% to ~4.71%, and on 30-year bonds from ~5.28% to ~5.24%. The bond market is valued at $32 trillion, so even such a seemingly minor movement changes the cost of money across the entire economy. If the Treasury begins to more actively use the TGA, these funds will flow back from the Fed to bondholders—banks, funds, and investors—increasing liquidity in the system. In effect, this will resemble a quantitative easing (QE) program, although the implementation mechanism will differ.

Market reaction and ETF inflows

The cryptocurrency market responded immediately. From August 17 to 21, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US recorded net inflows of about $1.9 billion, with all five trading days of the week being positive. This is an extremely significant indicator. For comparison, my calculations show that a sustained move from $79,000 to $90,000 would require roughly $3–5 billion in steady inflows, and about $5 billion for an assault on $100,000. Thus, the weekly inflow already covers a notable portion of this need.

Key levels and trading scenarios

The technical picture now looks as follows. Bitcoin holds about 59% of the market capitalization and sets the direction for all altcoins. The key support zone is the $73,000–75,000 range, where many new investors recently opened positions. As long as the price holds above this, the likelihood of panic selling is low.

The working range for the current week is $75,000–81,000. The area around $80,000 represents a historical "price imbalance" zone with low accumulated volume. The market often returns to fill such gaps. Additional momentum could come from the liquidation of shorts in the $80,000–81,000 area. The local high of the move is seen in the $83,000–85,000 zone. I consider a direct surge to $100,000 without a new powerful catalyst unlikely.

For Ethereum, the logic is similar. The coin rose 29% over the week and is trading around $2,500. Resistance is at $2,600–2,700, but the $2,200 zone looks more interesting for a potential pullback while Bitcoin's bullish structure remains intact.

My view

The US Treasury's decision is a signal that monetary authorities are beginning to ease conditions, albeit not directly through the Fed's rate. For Bitcoin, this is a fundamentally positive factor, as increased liquidity in the system inevitably reaches risky assets, albeit with a lag. However, one should not expect linear growth: the market must first consolidate above $75,000 to cement the success, and only then will targets of $90,000+ become realistic.