The market is entering a consolidation phase, but the long-term trajectory of the first cryptocurrency remains upward. My analysis confirms: bitcoin is capable of returning to the $125,000 mark by the end of 2026, and by mid-2027 — updating its all-time high in the region of $150,000. This is not just an optimistic scenario, but a baseline one, based on fundamental cyclical patterns.
The key driver is the four-year cycle, which consistently determines the asset's dynamics after each halving. The cost model, tied to the marginal costs of mining, shows that current levels are significantly below fair value. Miners operating on the edge of profitability set the lower bound of the price, and it continues to shift upward.
Additional momentum is being generated by institutional demand. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury reserves are becoming a systemic factor that smooths volatility and reduces supply in the market. Amid rising government debt and inflationary pressure, interest in scarce assets such as bitcoin is only intensifying.
Looking ahead to the next cycle, whose peak is expected in 2029, my calculations allow for reaching $300,000. This is ambitious, but not extreme: given the current pace of adoption and the Fed's monetary policy, such a level looks like a logical outcome.
My comment: Investors should not fixate on short-term fluctuations. The current correction is an opportunity to enter, not a signal to exit. Historical cyclicality and growing institutional interest create a rare combination of factors for long-term growth.