The market is once again turning its attention to long-term cycles, and my analysis confirms: the current trajectory of bitcoin fits the classic four-year halving model. According to my calculations, based on historical dynamics and miners' production costs, we are moving toward the $125,000 level by the end of 2026. This is not just an optimistic scenario—it is a mathematically grounded target, supported by the structure of supply and demand.
Key Levels and Timeframes
The baseline forecast assumes a return to $125,000 within the next 18 months, followed by an update of the all-time high around $150,000 by mid-2027. However, the growth potential is not limited to these figures. At the peak of the next cycle, which I estimate will occur in 2029, we could see bitcoin near the $300,000 mark. These levels are derived not from speculative expectations, but from the correlation between price and marginal mining costs—a metric that has historically served as a reliable indicator of long-term reversals.
Fundamental Drivers That Cannot Be Ignored
The cyclical model is only part of the equation. I see three key factors that amplify the bullish momentum. First, institutional demand through spot ETFs continues to absorb a significant portion of the issuance, creating a sustained deficit in the market. Second, corporate treasuries are increasingly viewing bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, adding additional structural demand. Third, the global debt burden of governments is pushing investors toward scarce assets that are immune to inflationary erosion.
My conclusion: the market underestimates the speed at which these factors convert into price. While macroeconomic uncertainty persists, bitcoin remains the most liquid hedge against fiat devaluation, and current levels represent an opportunity, not an exit point.