My analysis of the market structure indicates that Bitcoin is entering a phase of accelerated recovery, and the target levels I am tracking in my models are becoming increasingly ambitious. The base scenario suggests a return to the $125,000 mark by the end of 2026, and by mid-2027, we could see an update of the historical high around $150,000. This is not just a conservative extrapolation—it is about a fundamental shift in the asset's valuation.
The key driver is the four-year cycle, which after each halving demonstrates a stable correlation between reduced supply and price growth. I also take into account the marginal cost of mining model: when the cost of producing one BTC rises, the market is forced to factor in higher price targets. In the peak phase of the next cycle, which I expect in 2029, I do not rule out reaching a level near $300,000. This may seem bold, but historical volatility and liquidity compression work in favor of such a scenario.
Separately, structural demand should be highlighted, which no longer depends on retail trader sentiment. Capital inflows through spot ETFs and the formation of corporate reserves create a stable buyer base. Against the backdrop of growing debt burdens in developed economies and the devaluation of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is increasingly perceived as a hedge against systemic risks. This changes the very nature of pricing: we are moving from speculative trading to institutional accumulation.
My conclusion: current dynamics confirm that the market is in the early stage of a bull trend. However, investors should remember about corrections of 20-30%—they are inevitable on the path to $125,000. The main thing is not to exit positions on emotions, but to use dips for accumulation.