Over the past week, Bitcoin has shown impressive momentum, breaking out of a multi-month consolidation. For three consecutive days, the asset confidently updated local highs, surpassing the $70,000 mark and triggering a wave of short liquidations totaling around $3 billion. As a result, the leading cryptocurrency broke through the $80,000 level, posting gains of more than 13% in just a few days. This move looks particularly notable against the backdrop of the prolonged sideways trend that preceded the surge.
Macroeconomic trigger: the role of the U.S. Treasury
The key driver of this rally was the U.S. Treasury's decision to increase the buyback of long-term bonds through the TGA (Treasury General Account), which currently holds about $950 billion. The mechanism is simple: active buybacks of government bonds lower their yields, which in turn reduces the appeal of risk-free assets and pushes investors to seek higher returns, including cryptocurrencies.
The yield on 10-year notes fell from ~4.74% to ~4.71%, and on 30-year bonds from ~5.28% to ~5.24%. At first glance, these are minor fluctuations, but for a $32 trillion bond market, even such a move significantly changes the cost of money in the economy. If the Treasury continues to use the TGA more actively, liquidity will flow back from the Fed to bondholders—banks, funds, and investors—increasing the overall amount of free capital. In its impact, this will resemble QE, although the implementation mechanism differs.
ETF flows and target levels
Bitcoin's reaction to this news was swift. From August 17 to 21, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recorded net inflows of about $1.9 billion, with all five trading days positive. This already constitutes a significant portion of the amount needed to move toward new highs. For sustained growth from $79,000 to $90,000, roughly $3–5 billion in steady demand will be required, and about $5 billion for an assault on $100,000.
As for Ethereum, the coin rose 29% over the week, trading near $2,500, with monthly gains of about 34%. However, the sustainability of inflows into Ether ETFs (about $697 million over the week) remains in question.
Technical picture and forecast
Currently, the key support zone for Bitcoin is $73,000–75,000, where many new investors opened their positions. As long as the price holds above this range, the likelihood of panic selling is low. The working range for the current week is $75,000–81,000. The area around $80,000 is historically a "price imbalance" zone, where the market often returns to fill the gap. The local high of the move appears to be in the $83,000–85,000 range, while an immediate surge to $100,000 without a new powerful catalyst is unlikely.
The week's calendar is packed with important events: August 26—the PCE index and Nvidia's earnings report, August 28—a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. These data points could provide additional momentum for the market.
My view: We are witnessing a classic scenario where macroeconomic policy becomes the primary driver of the crypto market. However, it is important to remember that the current rally is largely speculative. If ETF inflows do not maintain their current pace, a correction to the $75,000 zone will become not just likely, but almost inevitable. Investors should be cautious and not give in to euphoria.