The market is once again talking about a bullish scenario, and my calculations confirm: bitcoin is capable of returning to the $125,000 mark by the end of 2026. This is not just optimism — it is a natural stage of the four-year cycle that I track in every halving. By mid-2027, we could see a new all-time high in the region of $150,000, and the peak of the next cycle in 2029 could reach $300,000.
The Foundation of the Forecast: Cycles and Mining Costs
My analysis is based on two key variables. First, bitcoin's historical cyclicality: after each halving, the asset goes through a phase of accumulation, growth, and correction, and the current pattern fully repeats previous iterations. Second, the marginal cost of mining model — it shows that the price always tends toward a level that covers producers' costs and adds a margin. Right now, this level is below current quotes, which creates room for upward movement.
Drivers: ETFs, Corporations, and the Debt Crisis
Beyond technical factors, I see structural changes in demand. Capital inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs continue to accelerate, and corporate reserves are becoming a new trend — companies are increasingly viewing BTC as a defensive asset. I would also note the macroeconomic context: growing government debt and inflationary pressure are pushing institutional investors toward scarce assets, and bitcoin is the main beneficiary here.
In my base scenario, $300,000 by 2029 is not a fantasy but a mathematically justified target if the cycle maintains its strength. However, I warn: volatility will remain high, and corrections of 20-30% are the norm, not a signal to exit. Investors should focus on the long-term horizon rather than daily candles.
My professional opinion: the market underestimates the speed of ETF adoption in pension and sovereign funds. If this trend accelerates, my target levels could be revised upward sooner than most participants expect.