Over the past week, bitcoin made an impressive leap, breaking through the $70,000 mark and approaching $80,000. This rise, exceeding 13% in a few days, was accompanied by the liquidation of short positions totaling about $3 billion. Many are asking: what catalyzed this movement? The answer lies not in the crypto industry, but in the actions of the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
The TGA Mechanism: How Bond Buybacks Accelerate the Market
The key trigger was the U.S. Treasury's decision to double the volume of long-term bond buybacks through the TGA (Treasury General Account), which currently holds about $950 billion. This is not classic quantitative easing (QE), but the effect on liquidity is similar. When the Treasury more actively buys back bonds, yields decline, making riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies, more attractive.
The yield on 10-year notes fell from ~4.74% to ~4.71%, and on 30-year bonds from ~5.28% to ~5.24%. The bond market is valued at approximately $32 trillion, so even such a move noticeably changes the cost of money in the economy. If the Treasury continues to use the TGA to inject liquidity, these funds will return to bondholders and ultimately reach the crypto market through exchange-traded funds.
ETF Inflows and Levels for Bitcoin
From August 17 to 21, spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recorded net inflows of about $1.9 billion — all five trading days were positive. Moving the price from $79,000 to $90,000 would require sustained demand of $3-5 billion, and for $100,000 — about $5 billion. Current inflows already account for a significant portion of that amount.
Bitcoin holds about 59% of the market capitalization and sets the direction for altcoins. The key support zone is $73,000-75,000, where many new investors opened positions. If the price holds above this level, selling pressure will be minimal. The working range for the week is $75,000-81,000. The $80,000 zone is a historical "price imbalance zone," where the market often returns to fill volumes. The local high is $83,000-85,000, and a surge to $100,000 is unlikely without a new catalyst.
Ethereum: Same Logic, But with Caveats
Ethereum rose 29% over the week and is trading around $2,500. Resistance is at $2,600-2,700, but the more interesting zone is $2,200, where a 12% pullback is possible for a local long entry. Spot Ethereum ETFs received $697 million in inflows, but the sustainability of this flow is still in question.
This week, watch for the PCE index on August 26, the Nvidia report (expectations — $92 billion in revenue), and the speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on August 28. These events could become a new driver or a trigger for a correction.
My analysis: The Treasury's actions are a hidden but powerful support factor for all riskier assets. However, it should not be forgotten that the market has already priced in part of this positivity. Without confirmation of new liquidity injections, holding above $85,000 will be difficult, while a pullback to $75,000 would be a perfectly healthy scenario for the continuation of the bullish trend.