Bitcoin is consolidating near $79,450, and although the asset has gained 23% over the past week, it is still down 9.2% since the start of the year. This is a powerful rebound within a deep correction, but to confirm a trend reversal, the market needs new drivers, and judging by the options structure, there are none yet.
An analysis of open interest for upcoming expirations reveals an intriguing picture. In total, the three key dates—August 28, September 4, and September 25—account for about $18.6 billion. At the same time, the max pain level for the August and September weekly expirations sits at $68,000, and for the quarterly one at $70,000. However, this entire structure was formed when Bitcoin traded in a narrow range of $62,000–66,000 for a month and a half. Over three sessions, the price moved more than 15% away from this level, and positioning simply has not had time to readjust. Max pain has turned into an artifact of the past rather than a working reference point.
The key point is the behavior of market makers. When Bitcoin was around $64,000, they were actively selling calls at strikes of $67,000–75,000. As the price rose, option sellers were forced to buy the underlying asset to hedge, which became the main driver of the surge on August 19–21. Over three sessions, the market moved from roughly $64,000 to $78,000 with volumes three times the August average. But now this mechanism is exhausted: 68% of calls are already deep in the money, and the bulk of the necessary hedge has been accumulated. The engine that pushed the price up has stalled—this is why the market has been unable to hold above $80,000 for the fourth session in a row.
Insurance below $70,000 has burned out
Formally, the put-to-call ratio for the August expiration looks balanced at 0.83. But 83% of all puts are concentrated at strikes below $70,000, which is 12% below the current price three days before expiration. This is insurance that has already completely lost its value.
A more interesting picture is seen at the weekly expiration on September 4. The maximum volume is concentrated at the $82,000 strike—about $185 million, or roughly 12% of the entire expiration. The ratio with the $80,000 strike indicates the presence of a linked options structure rather than a simple bet on growth. The maximum profit on this position is achieved at $82,000, and above $84,000 it turns into a loss. This means that $82,000 will act as a hard ceiling until the market breaks through $84,000. Above that level, the logic flips, and the same structure will begin to push the price upward.
Scenarios before the August 28 expiration
- Base scenario (55%): Bitcoin remains in the range of $78,000–81,800.
- Upside breakout (25%): A move above $81,300 with a push into the $81,800–84,500 zone via a short squeeze.
- Break below $78,000 (20%): A cascade of long liquidations with a move toward $75,000–77,000.
After the expiration, the picture changes qualitatively. Call sellers, who were holding Bitcoin below the sold rights, are freed from their hedges and begin selling the underlying asset. This deferred supply amounts to over $1 billion and could exert serious pressure on the market in the first days of September.
My comment: The market is currently in a phase where mechanical factors dominate over fundamental ones. Until the options structure readjusts to the new price realities, any attempts to storm $84,000 will be suppressed by market maker selling. Investors should prepare for volatility after August 28, when hedging positions begin to unwind.