Over the past week, the leading cryptocurrency has demonstrated an impressive surge, breaking through the $70,000 mark and closing in on $80,000. The rise exceeded 13% within a few days, triggering a cascade of short position liquidations totaling around $3 billion. However, behind this move lies not just market enthusiasm, but a specific macroeconomic trigger that is changing the rules of the game for all risk assets.
The key catalyst was the decision by the U.S. Department of the Treasury to double the volume of long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. This step, implemented through the TGA (Treasury General Account), directly impacts yields and liquidity in the global financial system.
Mechanism of market impact
Prior to this move, the yield on 10-year bonds had risen to 4.7%, and on 30-year bonds above 5.2%. Such rates set benchmarks for the entire economy: the higher they are, the more expensive mortgages, loans, and corporate financing become, and the less attractive stocks and other risk assets appear. The Treasury's increased bond buybacks lower their yields — we are observing a decline from ~4.74% to ~4.71% on ten-year securities and from ~5.28% to ~5.24% on thirty-year ones.
The bond market is valued at approximately $32 trillion, so even such a seemingly minor move noticeably changes the cost of money in the economy. If the Treasury begins to more actively use TGA funds (currently around $950 billion), this money will flow back from the Fed to bondholders — banks, funds, and investors — increasing liquidity in the system. In terms of its impact on yields, this mechanism resembles quantitative easing (QE), although technically it is implemented differently. Such liquidity reaches the crypto market last, mainly through exchange-traded funds.
It was precisely this news that Bitcoin reacted to: bond yields and the dollar index were declining, while investors once again began to increase risk. From August 17 to 21, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. received about $1.9 billion in net inflows — all five trading days were positive. For Bitcoin to move from $79,000 to $90,000, approximately $3-5 billion of sustained demand is needed, and to $100,000 — roughly $5 billion. The inflow over a single week already constitutes a noticeable portion of that amount.
Key levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin holds about 59% of market capitalization and sets the direction for all coins. After the rally, it returned above the $70,000 level — this is the average purchase price of investors who have held the coin for less than 155 days. Their profitability now: plus 11% for short-term holders, plus 1.5% for long-term holders, and plus 12.7% for the newest buyers. The main support range now is $73,000-75,000, where many new investors bought. As long as the price holds above this, they have fewer reasons for panic selling. If the price falls below $73,000, pressure will build, and a break below $70,000 would be even more dangerous — then new buyers would move into the red.
My working scenario for the week: the range of $75,000-81,000. The zone around $80,000 is a historical "price imbalance zone": Bitcoin rarely lingered at this level, so little volume and open interest have accumulated here, and the market often returns to fill this gap. Additional momentum could come from short liquidations in the $80,000-81,000 area. The local high of the move is $83,000-85,000. A surge straight to $100,000 (which is +27% from current levels) I consider unlikely without a new influx of liquidity or a catalyst for liquidations.
For Ethereum, the logic is similar: the coin rose 29% over the week and is trading around $2,500, with a monthly gain of about 34%. Resistance is at $2,600-2,700, but after such a strong weekly rally, I would not open long positions at these levels. More interesting is the $2,200 zone — a pullback of roughly 12% from the current price. There, it is worth looking for a local long with targets of $2,600 (+18%) and $2,700 (+23%), if Bitcoin maintains its growth structure. In the $2,600-2,800 area — a zone for a short with a return to $2,200 (-15% from $2,600, -21% from $2,800). Spot ETFs on Ethereum received about $697 million in net inflows over the past week, but the sustainability of this inflow remains in question.
My expert view: the market is clearly overbought in the short term, and a correction after such a surge is inevitable. However, the main macroeconomic driver — increased liquidity through the TGA — remains in force. If the Treasury continues to ramp up bond buybacks, this will create structural support for Bitcoin in the medium term. Keep an eye on the PCE index data (August 26) and the speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (August 28) — these events could become new triggers for volatility. The market now resembles a coiled spring: the longer it stays in the $75,000-85,000 range, the stronger the next upward impulse will be.